Mariners SDQL: Felix Hernandez Betting Trends

The odds on Seattle have taken a one-way ticket as the Cy Young hopeful right-hander opens a three-game series

Online sports betting shops have stacked the odds on Seattle’s top arm hushing the visitors tonight when Toronto opens its three-game series on the West Coast. Moneyline bettors who missed opening prices of Seattle -200 are now bidding into the -225 range with a total of O/U 6.5 but we’ve taken a different approach to follow up on our MLB Best Bet winner from Friday.

KING FELIX’s COURT

Seattle is 5-1 during its current home stand and will look to finish strong before a long eastern swing takes them to Detroit, Philadelphia and Boston. The Jays are playing off back-to-back home wins and trying to stay alive in the hunt for a Wild Card but Felix Hernandez will try and squash any hopes Toronto has of climbing back in the race and look at some of these trends supporting Hernandez (SDQL supplied by SportsDatabase.com):

Home fave after going at least eight innings his previous start: 13-1 last 14 starts and 35-16 last 51 tries

Home in the month of August: 18-6 last 24 starts

 

We looked at how the Jays have done in their first road game of a western swing (A’s, M’s, Angels, Dodgers, Giants) and results definitely seem better when Toronto was coming off a win. Their last seven games as a dog in this spot with lower totals (less than O/U 8); Toronto scored 1-4-4-5-3-11-1 runs. The ‘11’ was actually against King Felix on July 27, 2009 and the Jays likely know they will need run support with Drew Hutchinson pitching. His last five starts, Hutch has given up four-plus earned runs three times.

SDQL ADVANTAGE

Checked the numbers for sizable road dogs who are starting a road series off an extra innings win and when the total is below O/U 8, these roadies only average 3.5 RPG but the Jays Team Total for tonight’s game is only 2.5 (-102). Can Toronto score three runs?

 

In the King’s last 10 starts vs. Toronto the Jays have scored three-plus runs seven times (3.1 avg) and the three starts in Seattle, Toronto scored 7-7-11 runs. The nine Jays I’m projecting for the starting lineup tonight are 29 for 87 lifetime vs. Hernandez (.333 avg) and I’m betting that’s one of the better numbers you’ll find for current MLB rosters.

 

Seattle’s Team Total is O/U 4 (-111) and I find that high for team ranked 21st in average and 23rd in scoring (29th at home). But let’s say the M’s can score four runs against Hutch and this depleted Blue Jay pen. That means Toronto’s gotta score five to win. Wouldn’t touch the “Over” 4.5 for Toronto at any price but at 2.5 and small juice I’m willing to take a shot.

Pick: Take the Blue Jays Team Total OVER 2.5 runs (-102)

 

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