As we countdown the final days of October it’s time to review the results for one of our favorite NHL systems
Having the NHL season start on time this year was a big bonus for hockey betting fanatics and for the Pick Sixty handicappers it provided the chance to see if one of our old underdog system could maintain its solid winning percentage that dates back to 2008.
It’s an early-season system searching for value with road teams whose ability we feel has been underestimated by NHL odds makers and with just a few days left in the opening month we reviewed the results. The basic premise is to look for small to medium road dogs (+110 to +140 money line odds) who are coming off win. We call it “The Hunt for Red Dogtober”.
*Click on the SDQL links from SportsDatabase.com for a complete rundown
2013 teams off a home win:
2-3 SU and 3-1-1 O/U with avg line of +121 (value on the OV, especially with a total of 5)
The two winners each won by two-goal margins and the losers were each by exactly three goals (value on playing half-unit on adjusted puck line plays – Dog -1.5)
Both winners had totals of 5.5 and both road teams scored 2 goals in the first period (value on first period OV; value on first period ML dogs)
The only big gap in scoring was third period where home team outscored 1.8 to 1.0.
None of these games went to OT
2013 teams off a road win:
8-3 SU and 6-5 O/U with avg line of +123 (value on the road dog was strong)
Two of three SU losses were in OT
Only one of the games had a total of 5 (OV); of the 5 unders, three of them ended with 5 total goals (close calls; slight value on “Over” with any total)
Combined numbers for all Dogtober teams in 2013, regardless of previous location:
SU: 10-6 (0.50, 62.5%) avg line: 122.0
O/U: 9-6-1 (0.56, 60.0%) avg total: 5.4
Record update from 2008 to Monday, October-28-13:
SU: 58-45 (-0.04, 56.3%) avg line: 123.7
O/U: 49-48-6 (0.28, 50.5%) avg total: 5.5
Win, Lose or Draw?
13 games above .500 (56-percent) with an avg ML of +124
Now the calculation for ‘plus’ moneyline odds at +124:
Implied probability = 100 / (124 + 100)
Implied probability = 100 / 224
Implied probability = 0.446
Multiplied then by 100, we get the implied probability percentage of 44.6-percent
The conclusion is that since 2008, these road teams are performing roughly 12-percent above expectation and when you are getting an average payback of +124 per play that’s a nice return on you sports betting dollar. We’ll be running system checks throughout the season at PickSixtySports.com and if you have any requests just contact us here, send us a tweet or jump on ‘The Facebook’ and we’ll see if we can help.