CFL home faves are off to a hot start in 2018 but will the trend continue, or is it time to hop aboard that fade-train to profitville?
Single-digit CFL home faves are 6-2 ATS through the first three weeks of the 2018 season. That is just the second time in the past eight seasons that this group has bursted out of the gate with a winning record (2014).
Handicapping profiles such as CFL home faves is simple with the SDQL!
The SDQL code for single-digit CFL home faves is as follows, courtesy of Sports Database:
HF and season,1 and line>-10
Trend bettors may opt to jump on that chalk train for Week 4 but we have to consider the possibility that odds makers will overcompensate for the early, small-sample swing.
CFL HOME FAVES OVER-ACHIEVING
The first thing I want to draw attention to before we go any further is just how far off the map this year’s 6-2 ATS record is through the first three weeks. By comparison, single-digit CFL home faves BEFORE 2018 went 20-39-1 ATS, dating back to 2011. Access that angle with the following CFL SDQL code: HF and week < 4 and line > -10 and season < 2018
What that means is that a $100 bettor lost roughly $2,290 backing these faves for the past seven years. Factor in the +$380 gained back this year and it is still a net loss of -$1,910. Nothing to write home about.
Bettors need to have a short memory at times, and this is one of those occasions. You sure can’t make any money back from games lost in the past. You can, however, stack the current landscape against historical SDQL data to uncover potential value.
HERE AND NOW
The overall record for regular season, single-digit CFL home faves in Sports Database history (DBH) is 141-178-5 ATS. That’s 44.2% and so it would stand to reason that most weeks, these teams are a fade. Their best performance in terms of win percentages fell in Week’s 11, 12, 14, 20 and 8. Each of those records are listed in order below.
Week 11: 10-5-0 ATS (66.7%)
Week 12: 13-7-1 (65.0%)
Week 14: 9-5-0 (64.3%)
Week 20: 6-4-0 (60.0%)
Week 8: 8-6-0 (57.1%)
One theory on how single-digit CFL home faves thrive in the mid-season (Week’s 7-14) is that these are genuinely good teams that are starting to separate themselves from the pack. Try as they might, bookmakers could not post a high enough number to compensate for the gap in talent over their respective opponents.
What it means to us right now is that throughout the next month, we could be looking at a good opportunity for fading overpriced home faves that:
A. Are not as good as the number indicates (over valued).
B. Are not yet playing football at a level high enough to match the success rate of the home faves from the first three weeks of the season.
CFL HOME FAVES FOR WEEK 4
The away teams in three of four Week 4 matchups are laying points but keep an eye on the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. BC is in Winnipeg Saturday night and the line opened at Bombers -3.5 points. As of Wednesday we are seeing Winnipeg with either -4 or -4.5 point lines and this could go as high as -6. Bettors are speculating as to whether or not QB Matt Nichols (knee) will start after missing the first three weeks.
Likely CFL home faves to circle in Week 5 are Edmonton (hosting Toronto) and BC (hosting Winnipeg). Check CFL home faves here and make sure you visit the Killer Sports Trend Mart. The first part of the Lions-Bombers home and home is “live” in CFL 003 — a 62% system with hundreds of plays in support.