Rob Gronkowski made it official Wednesday. The 5-time Pro Bowl tight end will end his hiatus and join his former quarterback in Tampa. Gronk and Brady were a part of three Super Bowls together in New England and according the sportsbooks, they’ve immediately made Tampa Bay a top contender.
Brady and Gronk combined to win 50 regular season home games during their time in New England from 2010-18, 22 more than the Bucs in that same span
The Gronk – Brady Connection
Rob Gronkowski and Tom Brady have always shown a special connection on the football field. As of Tuesday’s announcement, they are once again close enough to share a zip code. Gronk is returning to the NFL this season, joining Brady in Tampa.
In an off-season that will never be forgotten, thanks in part to the lack of any other sports, football has stolen the spotlight. Brady’s move to the Bucs was already a big deal but Gronk joining Brady has created a massive shift in the NFL futures department with online sportsbooks. As a result, Super Bowl odds for the Bucs that were listed at 16/1 on Monday have been reinstalled between 9- and 12-to-1.
NFL Odds Watch: Tampa Bay Bucs
The Buccaneers posted a 7-9 SU record in 2019 that included just two wins at Raymond James. Tampa failed to cover a single pointspread on home turf in 2019.
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In the past five seasons, Tampa Bay has averaged 6.4 wins per season. The team’s lone winning mark in that span was in 2016 when they went 9-7.
2019: 7-9 SU and 5-9-2 ATS
2018: 5-11 SU and 5-8-3 ATS
2017: 5-11 SU and 6-8-2 ATS
2016: 9-7 SU and 9-7 ATS
2015: 6-10 SU and 7-9 ATS
Tampa’s .400 win-percentage (32-48 SU) since 2015 is 6th worst in the NFL. By comparison, only the Browns, Jaguars, Giants, 49ers and Jets have won fewer games.
Since Gronk and Brady reunited, prices on Tampa Bay’s Season Win Total (SWT) have climbed significantly. The price on going “Over” 9 wins is -180 at Pinnacle Sports. Scanning several outlets, the more common line for T-Bay is 9.5 wins with a cost of -125.
Sports Database Tip: The last time Tampa finished with more regular season wins than New England was in 2005. The Bucs (11-5) won the division but lost an opening round playoff matchup to the Redskins, 17-10. Tampa turned the ball over three times in that loss.
Gronk, Brady make Bucs a Contender
New Orleans (-110) is still ranked as the odds-on favorite to win the NFC South, but Tampa is gaining ground. Checking Bet 365, the Bucs can be found at +150 to win but another book is down to +130.
In terms of Conference odds, the Bucs are paying back 6/1 at Bet 365 and that’s down from an opening week price of +750. We’ll know by Sunday if the NFL Draft has any impact on this data.
Gronk props include Total TD “Over” 4.5 at -139 and Total Receiving Yards “Over” 675.5 at -110.
If the Brady to Gronk connection pays off, Tom Brady MVP odds of 12 to 1 are certainly worth a look. Here are the latest NFL MVP odds from Pinnacle Sports:
1. Patrick Mahomes +386
2. Lamar Jackson +625
3. Russell Wilson +625
4. Deshaun Watson +1040
5. Tom Brady +1200
Perhaps the most important stat to consider is the .791 straight up win-percentage that Gronk and Brady put together during regular season games from 2010-18. In 55 home games during that span, the Pats went 50-5 SU (.909 WP), outscoring opponents by 13.5 PPG.
Bettors will also note that this dynamic duo hit 62% ATS and the “Over” was 61% effective. With HC Bruce Arians calling the shots, those are the kind of numbers that I can really get behind.