Friday Night Lights – NFL Preseason

Tampa Bay is expecting Tom Brady to make a quick exit in tonight’s contest as the Bucs try to bounceback from last week’s loss


 

Friday night preseason football betting takes on whole different meaning as handicappers scramble throughout the day to find out which starters will play and for how many snaps. Based on the current NFL totals in Week 2, we should probably expect to see some heavy first-half scoring tonight.

 

The Minnesota at Buffalo game opened at 40.5 and as of Friday afternoon we are seeing 43 with a majority of online sportsbooks. Oakland at New Orleans (O/U 42.5) has jumped 2.5 points and San Francisco’s game against Kansas City (O/U 40) has seen mild action, though it did bump onto a key number with early action from sports betting accounts.

 

New England will play host to Tampa Bay (O/U 40.5) and this total fell right off the board when Tom Brady was hurt at practice Wednesday but he looked just fine on Thursday so this game has turned into a chess match between bookmakers and “Under” bettors who are waiting to see at least 41 before jumping on board.

 

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Teams who give up 40-plus points in the preseason are on a 6-0 ATS run when getting +3.5 points the following week

 

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The Bucs were whipped 44-16 by the Baltimore Ravens last week and we expect a much better showing from them on the road but while we wait to see if that number comes back to +3.5 (current NFL odds show Patriots -3), here is an interesting Over/Under angle that was 72-percent in 2012 with 18 plays.

 

AUGUST + FRIDAY = OVER

As NFL head coaches look to give their projected starters more reps in the second preseason game and whether that means the whole first quarter or right up until the half, the general rule is to look at these games going over the number in the first-half. Here’s a breakdown from the past few seasons.

 

2011

1. NFLX Wk 1-11, 5 games, 3-2 O/U in first-half and 2-3 O/U full game

2. NFLX Wk 2-11, 6 games, 3-2-1 O/U in first-half and 3-3 O/U full game

3. NFLX Wk 3-11, 2 games, 1-1 O/U in first-half 1-1 O/U full game

4. NFLX Wk 4-11, 1 game went 0-1 O/U in first-half and 0-1 O/U full game

Overall Friday record for 2011 was 7-6-1 O/U in the first-half and 6-8 O/U full game

 

2012

1. NFLX Wk 1-12, 6 games went 3-3 O/U in the first-half and 2-3-1 O/U full game

2. NFLX Wk 2-12, 6 games went 6-0 O/U in the first-half and 4-2 O/U full game

3. NFLX Wk 3-12, 6 games went 4-2 O/U in the first-half and 2-4 O/U full game

No Friday night games in Wk 4; overall record for 2012: 13-5 O/U in the first-half and 8-9-1 O/U full game

 

In the eight Friday night preseason games in Week 1 this year we saw a 4-4 O/U split in the first-half with 5 overs and 3 unders full game but overall, the first-half record since 2011 is 24-15-1 O/U (62-percent) compared to 19-20-1 O/U (49-percent) in the full 60 minutes.

 

FIRST-HALF ODDS

The best number for the Vikings-Bills and Raiders-Saints game’s in the first-half is O/U 23 and you can find the Bucs-Pats at 21.5. San Fran at Kansas City has been bought off 23 to 22.5 thanks to the Niners reputation on defense and Andy Reid’s disdain of preseason games but it’s worth noting, Reid’s overall record in preseason games with Philadelphia was actually 30-21-3 to the over (59-percent).

 

Be sure and check the weather or stop by our affiliate sports betting forum at EveryEdge for more on all of these games. Enjoy the action and good luck!