Today’s free picks focus on the diamond where the Rockies open at home against the Padres!
The Padres are 0-3 SU to start the season and this afternoon they travel up to the Mile High City for the first of three games against the Colorado Rockies (2-1 SU). The starting pitchers are a pair of righties, Colin Rea for the Pods and Jordan Lyles for the Rocks.
MLB odds for this contest favor Colorado -140 and that line is on the rise. The total is also catching attention and my take is that the Rockies are going to not only pound Rea, they’ll also take it the pitiful Padre bullpen when the youngster has had enough.
Colorado made hey during day games at home in 2015, averaging 6.1 runs per game (RPG) against right-handed pitching. The Rocks went 12-8 SU in those 20 games on an average line of -109, for a 16-percent ROI. View this list of games at the Sports Database with SDQL text: team = Rockies and H and season = 2015 and o:STR and start time < 1700
What you’ll note on the chart is that the first eight games of the season, Colorado actually scored 7.0 RPG, exceeding today’s posted run total (5 OV -125) in six of eight contests.
The weather in the Rockies is seasonal today with temps around 65 degrees, light winds and no chance for precipitation. It’s the perfect scenario for the Rocks to welcome a second-year starter into ‘Pitcher Hell’. Rea shut Colorado down in one meeting last year but that was down in the cozy confines of Petco Park. Rea only pitched away from home once last year and he lost 4-3 to the sad sack Phillies. My money says he’ll be lucky to make it through five innings at Coors Field and the San Diego pen, which has already been exposed to nine earned runs through just 11.2 innings (6.94 ERA), will be of little assistance.
San Diego was 48-30-3 O/U on the road last year (4.8 RPG allowed) including 16 overs, 8 unders and a push in series openers. Teams can’t wait to rip into the Padre pitching staff and with the help of that thin Mile High air, we should have little problem getting to at least six runs today.
MLB Pick: Take the Rockies Team Total OVER 5 runs at -125