Pick Sixty posted our third-straight winning month in July and we’ll look to keep things going with our Friday MLB pick from the Nats-Mets series opener.
Marcus Stroman is making his first home start with the Mets since moving over from Toronto before the deadline
Friday MLB Pick: Washington at New York
Line: Nationals -125 and 7.5 Over -110
The Nationals (61-53) are back on the east coast following a three-game sweep of the Giants. Washington has scored 4-plus runs in five-straight games and nine of their past 10. On the season, the team is averaging 5.0 runs per game (RPG) and allowing 4.6.
Winners of six in a row, New York (60-52) has picked up their pace in the back-half. The Mets have earned a victory in 13 of 14, albeit against weaker competition. Still, this squad has scored 4-plus runs in 13 of those 14 games and boosted their season average to 4.8 RPG.
METS SCORING AVERAGE BY MONTH
April = 5.0
May = 4.1
June = 5.0
July = 4.5
August = 6.4
Pitching Matchup: Nats at Mets
Things are about to get real for New York as they dig in against team wins leader Stephen Strasburg (14-5). Tagged for nine earned runs in his last outing, Strasburg had limited opposing teams to three or less in his previous five starts.
Marcus Stroman makes his first home start for the Mets and this is also his first career start at Citi Field. The Stro Show has faced a handful of Nats in the past, mostly when they were with American League clubs. On average, Nat hitters that have faced the ex-Blue Jay are hitting .250 against him.
Friday MLB Pick: Over/Under Prediction
Road teams on a hot streak who know that their opponent is swinging a hot bat are a good bet to come into the ballpark amped up. With one SDQL angle in particular we are seeing a 12% ROI on the “Over” and those games are averaging 9.5 RPG. Five games in 2019 produced a 4-1 O/U record with at least eight runs scored in each.
Strasburg has limited the Mets to a .200 average but his team is 12-7-1 O/U against them in 20 career starts. At City, the Nats are 10-2 vs. the Mets with Strasburg on the bump and scoring an average of 5.2 RPG. This game has all the makings of a pitchers duel but our research indicates value on the contrary. Shop for a 7.5 at Pinnacle or 5 Dimes, but don’t hesitate buying in at 8 with plus money. For our Friday MLB pick, we’re on the over.