The Baltimore Ravens face the Miami Dolphins Sunday and Greg Dempson offers his thoughts and prediction for which team will prevail ATS
NFL odds for this game were on a short delay following the Dolphins Monday nighter against the New Orleans Saints and after losing 38-17, a lot of cappers we talked to in the sports betting world seemed a bit puzzled over the number (Dolphins -3). After weighing out the variables it seems like sportsbooks have found a slight majority of action coming in on the road dog but you can still find Ravens +3 at Sports Interaction, the Greek, Bet 365 and Bodog. Here are Greg’s thoughts on this game will play out.
WEEK 5: BALTIMORE AT MIAMI (-3 +105, O/U 43)
After one month’s worth of games this season I am not sold on Miami and feel that Baltimore has a good chance to win this game straight up. Since that opening game debacle against the Broncos, Baltimore has played better on defense holding their last three opponents to six, nine, and 23 points. Baltimore is ranked #1 in special teams (Miami is also good at #4) and I have a number of systems lining up against the home favorite.
The Dolphins have a bye on deck and non division home favorites, when hosting a foe off a loss are only 9–16 ATS. Playing against home teams with a tight line between +/-3 points who allowed 30 or more points in their last game has produced a record of 46-18 ATS or 72% since 1983 as long as the team they are hosting lost its last game by three or less points.
And finally, when we play on road teams with a tight line that averaged 90 or less rushing yards in back-to-back games (applies to the Ravens); we are 29-8 ATS (78%) the past five years.
I’ve invested 2.5-units on the Ravens at +3 as one of four top rated plays this week and I only hope my luck hasn’t run out after winning the 4.5 STAR rated college football Best Bet from Saturday!
Pick: Take the Ravens