Free Week 11 NFL Picks: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

Pro capper Greg Dempson with sports betting tips on why the Buffalo Bills are one of the top dogs on today’s football lineup.

 

The New York Jets average 361 yards per game at home but only 294 yards on the road. At home, Buffalo averages 337 yards per game vs. 293 yards away from home. When playing at “The Ralph” the Bills have defeated the Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens and the Carolina Panthers and when hosting the unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo had a 479-210 edge in total yards.

 

[quote_text color=”#000000″ text_color=”#ffffff”]“When reviewing each team’s strength of schedule I note that Buffalo has taken on the forth toughest vs. the #24 toughest for the Jets”[/quote_text]

 

Buffalo’s defense has allowed an average of 297 yards the last four weeks and they played the high powered New Orleans Saints in that time frame. The Jets are yielding 358 yards per game but it’s fair to point out that New York also faced the Saints, not to mention Tom Brady and the Pats. The difference is defense; Buffalo is ranked #1 in the NFL in combined sacks and interceptions and I also note that the Jets have not topped more than 16 first downs in a road game all year.

 

I like the Bills in this game and they are supported by the following underdog system that also works when the NFL odds are ‘Pick em’:

– Play on underdogs after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt in two-straight games when they are playing against an opponent that has allowed 7 or more passing yards per attempt in two-straight games

This system is 3–0 ATS the pasts three seasons, 17–8 ATS the past decade and 50–22 = 69% ATS since 1983. The Bills get the call at +2 for 3.0-units.

 

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