Pick Sixty’s first prediction from the Week 9 football betting card looks at the New Orleans Saints vs. New York Jets where sportsbooks are listing the road team as 5.5-point chalk.
The New Orleans Saints took a week off and returned to form last Sunday with another 30-plus point effort against a mediocre Buffalo Bills team. This week the Saints have hit the highroad to New York where they’ll take on the Jets in their fourth and final non-Conference matchup of the regular season. The Saints scored 38, 27 and 35 points against their first three AFC opponents and yet books are tempting “Over” bettors with a Team Total of just 25.5 points. Does Rex Ryan know something about Rob Ryan’s defense the rest of us should know?
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at NEW YORK JETS
NFL Odds: Saints -5.5 and O/U 45.5
[dropcap2]W[/dropcap2]ith Sean Payton back on the sidelines this season the Saints are back near the top of almost every major offensive statistical category including overall scoring (28.0 PPG). At home the Saints are perfect this season and even after a slow start last week, riddled with penalties the team still hit its normal first quarter scoring average (6.3 PPG) and still carried a double-digit lead into the half.
On the road has been a slightly different story with the team scoring just 23 PPG but they’ve only played three road games this year. The first was in the humid conditions at Tampa (divisional), the second was at Soldier Field where in the past 10 years the Bears have only allowed 19.3 PPG (Saints scored 26) and the third was in a back-to-back road spot at New England. Drew Brees and the Saints lost that game, remember? Tom Brady needed exactly 60 minutes to make it so.
Since Payton took over in 2006 the Saints are only 8-7 SU/ATS in regular season road games vs. non-Conference opponents with a scoring average of 25.8 PPG but take the first two seasons out of that picture and the score jumps to 28.8. Take last year away (Payton suspension) and the scoring average inches to 29.4. Now look at AFC teams like the Jets who had a win percentage of .500 or better and whoops! New Orleans is 2-3 SU in these games with a 26.4 PPG average.
The New York Jets are .500 through a series of miracles this season starting with Tampa Bay in Week 1 when Bucs LB Lavonte David shoved Geno Smith out of bounds in the dying seconds, setting up a game-winning field goal by Nick Folk. Folk (19 of 19) is the only kicker with more than two attempts per game this season that remains perfect and he is 10 for 10 at 40-plus yards. Bad move Lavonte but bad news for Jets fans because on the road the Saints take the fifth fewest penalties in the league.
Lady Luck reared its head again in Week 5 when the Falcons defense was exposed as the sham that it is in front of a national audience. The Jets scored 30 points that night and some may credit that to skill but the Falcons have given up 23 points or more to every team they’ve faced this year including the Rams and Bucs. New Orleans’ defense is fourth in the league at 17.1 points allowed per game.
[quote_text color=”#000000″ text_color=”#ffffff”]Since their playoff run in 2011 the Jets are 1-7 SU and 2-5-1 ATS against teams whose defense allows fewer than 20 points per game (min. three games played)[/quote_text]
New York’s win against the Pats should be credited more towards New England’s bad luck and no team is more deserving but regardless, the Jets caught a major break in overtime against a division rival. Did you see that “illegal push” on the field goal attempt? Blasphemy!
SOMEONE HAS TO SCORE
This is one of four non-conference games on the slate and in case you haven’t noticed, those have been on a serious run for an entire year now (47-22-2 O/U). We don’t have as much credit in New York scoring 20 points as we do the Saints but even if Ryan’s team figures a way, New Orleans is equipped to answer back. Inter-Conference road faves coming off a ‘W’ have posted 33 overs, 10 unders and a push the past few seasons while scoring 31.7 PPG. Catch this one before it moves.
Pick Sixty Early Buy: Take the Saints