Early Week 15 NFL Picks: Patriots at Dolphins

The New England Patriots will look to lockup the AFC East this weekend with a game against the Miami Dolphins

Current odds for Sunday’s divisional matchup favor the Patriots -2 and sports betting sights across the board have the total set at 45.5. The Pats would have been laying more than field goal had they not lost premiere tight end Rob Gronkowski (knee) during last week’s win against the Cleveland Browns but if you look back to the ghosted lines for every NFL game set in August, the early odds for betting the side were actually New England -2.


Miami’s expectations fell after a mid-season four-game slump but the Fish have already cleared the Season Win Total of 6.5 offered at some books for 2013 and they’ve weathered the turmoil of an internal bullying scandal that have likely solidified Joe Philbin’s spot on the sidelines for at least another season. Miami is back home after a wild 34-28 win in Pittsburgh and the Dolphins qualify for this football betting system that is 16-6 O/U (73-percent) the past while with games averaging 53.1 points per game (PPG). Click the SportsDatabase.com link for details:


SDQL Text: HD and DIV and p:A and pp:A and tpp:season = season and t:NB and date >= 20011216 and REG and 44 < total < 52


Miami is 1-7 O/U its past eight divisional games but the last seven times they’ve faced New England the Pats have scored an average of 31.7 PPG and you’ll notice that the road foe in the highlighted system has averaged 29.7 points.


Miami just put up 34 points in Pittsburgh and they had 23 points the week before that. Carolina held them down at home but that’s a Carolina defense ranked No. 3 in the league. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh, the Jets and San Diego, who Miami hit 20-plus points against each the past four weeks, are 21st, 15th and 32nd in defense. New England’s D ranks right in the middle (19th) and at home we like the Dolphins to get at least 20 points. The Pats may have lost Gronk but they are still good for 20-plus points without him and we’ll look for a heavy dose of the run game against a Miami D offering 137 rushing yards per game at home. When the Pats rush for more than 110 yards they are 17-5 O/U the past 22 games and they’ve cleared the total by nearly 9 PPG.

Pick: Take the Pats and Dolphins OVER 45.5 points


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