Early Week 10 NFL Picks: Jaguars at Titans

The winless Jacksonville Jaguars return from the bye week vs. a Tennessee Titans team who are coming off their first win in over a month.

It’s really hard for anyone to know what went on the past 10 days behind the closed doors of Jaguars HC Gus Bradley. There is nothing the Jags can do to salvage the 2013 season so the team is going to have to set its sights on smaller, more achievable goals such as avoiding a 0-16 record and establishing some sort of identity to build on for next year. Tied with Tampa Bay (0-8 SU) for fewest wins, Jacksonville is still at risk of screwing up the first overall draft pick next April but Bradley will have us believe that winning a game is still more important and it starts with Sunday’s game against the Tennessee Titans.

 

WEEK 10 – JAGUARS at TITANS

Current NFL Odds: Titans -11, O/U 41

The Titans (4-4 SU) had lost three-straight games ahead of last week’s 28-21 win over St. Louis and although they don’t have the same motivation this week to beat their former coach (Jeff Fisher), no team wants to be the first casualty of an opponent who are as perpetually bad as the Jaguars.

 

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Leaders in Futility: Since 2011 the Jacksonville Jaguars are 7-33 SU (.175) and they’ve been outscored by 11.3 points per game

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Considering they have yet to score a single touchdown at home this season we can assume the team enjoys playing more on the road and the Jags did put up 20 points in their last visit to Tennessee Week 17, 2012 but to secure a win this weekend Jacksonville’s going to need more from its offense. Tennessee is ranked mid-pack in home scoring this season (23.0 PPG) but they have a game against the Colts on-deck next Thursday (Nov. 14). Divisional home favorites of more than a TD have performed well in this spot, going 10-1 since 2006 with an average 28 points per contest.

 

The Jags do fit one profile that has seen winless teams off a bye go 8-2-1 ATS this late in the season but the majority of those teams were at home including all six divisional teams (5-0-1 ATS). We don’t think it’s impossible that Jacksonville will cover this weekend and they may even win straight-up but Tennessee is in a good spot to pound the football against one of the league’s weakest run defenses and if Mike Munchak can get his run game untracked the Titans should be able to score some score points.

 

Home favorites against teams who allow more than 4.5 rushing yards per carry have a 21-3 ATS record and teams have been pounding the Jags for 33.8 carries per game (most in the league) with a net result of 4.8 RYPC. This year alone has produced 9 overs and 4 unders with 11 of 13 teams collecting 30-plus points. The Titans have also scored 27-plus points in seven of their past eight divisional home games vs. teams whose W/L record was below .500 (29.6 PPG) and I don’t think the game against the Colts creates enough of a look-ahead spot to slow that trend down.

For this week’s early pick take the Titans Team Total to go OVER 26.5 points

 

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