Thursday’s NCAA basketball underdogs were 3-1 against the spread (ATS) and that’s tempting bettors to test their luck Friday in three of four games on the college card
Betting underdogs last night in the first-half and half-time lines available from top online sportsbooks produced a 6-2 record but according to one source, the action is following an unfamiliar pattern Friday.
Oregon (60-percent), Michigan State (56-percent) and Florida Gulf Coast (72-percent) have all collected a higher percentage at the proverbial ‘ticket window’ with just four hours left until tip-off.
Normally, when chalk bettors have a bad night the tendency is for Joe Public to charge back towards the favorites with even more vengeance. Books are well versed in these habits and thus charge a higher price, often resulting in losing night for late chalk bettors who didn’t grab the best line. The chase is on!
Tonight it looks like dog bettors are not only grabbing all the points they can find, but are taking a nice shot on the money lines, too. It should be a great night of basketball.
No. 12 Oregon vs. No. 1 Louisville
Line: Cardinals -10.5 and O/U 132
Louisville HC Pitino is 4-0 SU/ATS in this round his past four visits and the Cards are riding a 12-game win streak that started Feb. 14 against St. John’s. They are 10-1 ATS in their past 11 games and all 10 covers were by double-digits. Oregon is 5-0 straight-up (SU) in its past five and 4-1 ATS; all five games were played on a neutral court.
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 2 Duke
Line: Blue Devils -2 and O/U 134.5
Dogs are 10-7 ATS in this round when it’s a 3- vs. 2-seed and the Spartans have covered three-straight in this series including two games since 2010. With two good coaches and two good D’s it’s no wonder books report 75-percent action on the “Under”.
No. 4 Michigan vs. No. 1 Kansas
Line: Jayhawks -2 and O/U 136
This game has the most even split for side and moneyline betting out of the four, with 68-percent action going to the over. No. 1 seeds are only 15-19 ATS in the Sweet 16 vs. a 4- or 5-seed and the past 12 times a No. 1 seed was favored by -5 points or less they are just 6-6 SU and 2-9-1 ATS.
No. 16 Florida Gulf Coast vs. No. 3 Florida
Line: Gators -13 and O/U 136
With only two seniors in their lineup this will without a doubt be the biggest stage yet for the upstart Eagles. They have no doubt earned their right to play but the Gators have made a habit of blowing teams they ‘should beat’ out by double-digits, although it should be noted Florida’s overall record this season is a pedestrian 18-14 ATS. Dogs are now 14-6 ATS in the semis after last night’s three covers and the Eagles are playing with confidence but given the situation, we’d feel more comfortable laying the points in this contest.
For tonight’s big games our three picks are Michigan State-Duke Under 134.5, Michigan +2 and Florida -13 or less. Good luck with your plays and enjoy the action.
Our past seven plays are 7-0 ATS! Check out PickSixtySports on Twitter for daily updates and free picks
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