Dallas Cowboys linebacker Sean Lee is out of the lineup and to say that they have struggled when he is injured is an understatement.
The first test for Dallas without Sean Lee is in Week 4 against the Detroit Lions. My initial instinct on this game was that it could be a potential letdown spot for HC Matt Patricia after beating his old team and earning win No. 1. At second glance, I don’t know how Dallas can be laying points against anyone without Lee out of the lineup.
SEAN LEE INJURY IMPACT
Dallas LB Sean Lee plays a physical style at an aggressive position and occasionally it takes its toll. Lee has missed dozens of games through the years including the entire 2014 season. In 2015-17, Lee missed eight games and Dallas went 1-7 SU/ATS.
The Cowboys overall record when Sean Lee is injured is 6-19 against the spread.
Dallas has struggled mightily when LB Sean Lee is out of the lineup
LIFE WITHOUT SEAN LEE
Dallas drafted Boise State linebacker Leighton Vander Esch to bolster their middle and while LVE has potential, it’s going to take some coaching. Right now, Dallas is coming off a loss in Seattle where they had less than 28 minutes time of possession. Home faves in this role are just 3-18-2 ATS, seen with this SDQL trend from Sports Database. The Lions have a more potent run game than they’ve had in years and if they can wear the Cowboys down, Detroit can make it two-straight for their new HC.
Rookie head coaches like Patricia have an 18-7 ATS record in this spot and they are 10-2-1 ATS as a dog up to +3 points. With bigger dog lines the rookies are 36-18-1 ATS but unlike most weekends, the public are staying away from Dallas today. The impact of life without Sean Lee has become well publicized and so has Dak Prescott’s three-game streak of sub-200 passing.
Home teams off a road game in Seattle are 12-20 ATS on an avg line of -1. The over is also 62% but for this game, I’m taking the points.
NFL Pick: Take the Lions to cover in Dallas