Pick Sixty’s newest NFL betting feature focuses on SDQL trends with betting tips on how to beat the odds
The Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants headline Monday’s sports betting docket and the NFL odds ticker is following its usual primetime pattern with money flowing towards the favorite and the “Over”. We run through some of the handicapping aspects that went into building this line with elements worth considering before filling out your “ticket” – or online betting slip, as it may be.
VIKINGS AT GIANTS – CONSIDER THIS!
1. Line Movement: When NFL odds against the spread were released in July for the entire 2013 season the books listed New York as a 3-point favorite and the current line is Giants -3.5 with some books even charging a price on the hook. To play New York -3 it would cost you anywhere between -120 and -137 meaning the Giants need to win this matchup more than 55-percent of the time to create value.
[quote_text color=”#000000″ text_color=”#ffffff”]- Since 1996, New York has been a home favorite of -3 points or more 92 times and they have won 50 if those games by four points or more 50 (54.3-percent)[/quote_text]
2. Here and Now: The Giants have been home favorites between -3 and -7 points 11 times since 1996 when the team’s straight-up record was below .500 and they went 9-2 SU and 6-4-1 ATS (60-percent). The value in those games was on the “Under” (73-percent) seen with this chart from SportsDatabase.com:
SDQL: team = Giants and HF and -7 < line <= -3 and season >= 1996 and t:WP < 50
– Note that the average total in this situation was 37.7, 10 points less than the Over/Under odds available today in Monday Night Football betting
3. Viking Ship: Minnesota has been outscored (32.5 to 27.0), outrushed (123 to 114 yards) and outpassed (317 to 226 yards) in each of its two road starts this season but both games were divisional and it was Week’s 1 and 2. Last week at home the team was blown away 35-10 and in the six most recent road games where Minny was coming off a game like that the Vikes are 5-1 ATS, outrushing opponents 168.5 yards to 86.5.
SDQL: team = Vikings and A and t:NB and tp:margin <= -21 and season >= 2001
Monday home favorites between -3 and -10 points who have improved their ATS margin in consecutive weeks show a 16-5 SU record but it falls to 11-8-2 ATS. Those numbers date back to 1989 and the latest trends since 2004 are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS. The Vikings have the edge in rushing while New York gets the nod in passing, despite Eli Manning’s league-leading 15 interceptions. Manning is likely to keep firing as he ranks top five in passing attempts per game (38.3) and while the Vikes have a generous pass D who allow 67-percent completions they are also fourth in the league for takeaways behind the Chiefs, Seahawks and Bears.
We lean to the road side in this game and feel they have a good chance of clearing their Team Total (OVER 22.5).