Pick Sixty’s newest NFL betting feature focuses on SDQL trends for the San Francisco 49ers and Carolina Panthers playoff game with betting tips on how to beat the NFL odds
The San Francisco 49ers struggled through a few key injuries this season but rode out the bumpy patches and took a six-game win streak into Lambeau Field last week where they edged the Green Bay Packers 23-20. Jim Harbaugh’s team is now 26-9-1 SU and 21-13-2 ATS in their past two seasons and the public betting opinion on today’s contest appears to be split. Shopping around various sportsbooks, one has the Niners -1.5 while another favors Carolina and a third is ‘Pick em’.
Road teams who have won six or more of their past eight games are a historically a strong first-half fade (6-25 ATS) but since Week 7, the Niners have only allowed one team to score in the opening quarter. The first quarter line on this game is ‘Pick em’ with a total of 7 UN (-145) and with Steve Smith a question mark and Cam Newton making his first ever playoff appearance, it’s reasonable to think these two defensive heavyweights could spend the early part of this game feeling each other out. You can get a half-point with Carolina in the first-half at -110 with Sports Interaction and that’s one play to consider.
Panthers coach Ron Rivera has not made good use of his regular season bye weeks during the past three seasons (0-3 SU/ATS) and all three games stayed under the total. Two were at home and all three were far enough into the year that he should have had a semblance of what he was dealing with but his offense only generated an average of 7.7 total points in those games. Following yesterday’s split, the current run for home teams off a playoff bye is 14 overs and 3 unders since Jan. 15, 2011 but this total has been bet down to 41.5 so it appears the house money is on the under. We lean towards the under in this game and for readers who like the over we suggest waiting until half-time or perhaps “live” betting the game over once the line dips below 40.
This will be one of the toughest playoff defenses Colin Kaepernick has ever faced and Carolina has a record of 0-4 O/U the past two years vs. mobile QBs. San Francisco is 1-5 O/U vs. the new generation of mobile QBs and here is another stat supporting the under:
SDQL System: H and tA(o:PY + o:RY) < 320 and playoffs = 1 and tp:week + 2 = week and week < 22 and op:AW
In SportsDatabase.com database history, home teams with a defense that allows an average of 320 yards or less are 5-9 O/U when coming off a first round bye. It’s a very limited sample and when you consider the new era of high scoring football, it may not hold but it’s something to consider before making your bets. Our two plays for today are Chargers at Broncos OVER 54 and the San Diego Team Total OVER 20.5 (-115). Visit the Pick Sixty Facebook page for more details.