CFL Betting Trends: Calgary at Winnipeg, Week 5

The Blue Bombers are still trying to track down that first win at Investors Group Field


 

The Calgary Stampeders will get their first look at the new stadium in Winnipeg Friday night for this primetime tilt vs. the home town Blue Bombers. CFL odds favored the Stamps -4 and 56 early in the week but given the personnel changes, online sportsbooks have boosted the chalk to -5/-5.5 and slashed the total down to 48, the lowest we’ve seen all season.

 

WEEK 5 CFL – STAMPEDERS AT BLUE BOMBERS

There has been a few interesting developments out of both camps this week as each team gets ready to roll with a backup QB who will be making his first-ever professional start.

 

– It’s been 17 years since two CFL QBs started their first games in the same game

 

The Bombers are starting second-stringer Justin Goltz and the Stamps are expected to counter with third-stringer Bo Levi Mitchell. Levi Mitchell came in last week relieving an injured Kevin Glenn and the Stamps offense barely skipped a beat as he completed a 38-27 comeback win over the stunned Montreal Alouettes. Goltz on the other hand brings a little mystery to the stagnant Bomber offense as he possesses a different skill set than starter Buck Pierce. Goltz brings prototypical QB size to the mix along with speed and the ability to scramble. Goltz also possesses solid arm strength so what he lacks in game experience could potentially be compensated for with raw ability.

 

[quote_text color=”#000000″ text_color=”#ffffff”]Calgary was 1-3 SU/ATS laying points on the road in 2012 but they have a record of 18 overs, 7 unders and 2 pushes in this spot since 2007[/quote_text]

 

Another component to this matchup is Canadian RB Jon Cornish, who has the ability to dominate a game on his own. Looking at the last seven meetings between the two clubs, Cornish and the Stamps are 7-0 SU and led wire to wire in six of those games. That’s not the only streak the Bombers want to snap as they have now lost two in a row since upsetting Montreal (Week 2) and have yet to secure their first win at IGF.

 

The Bombers have been bitten by the injury bug early but should benefit from the return of rush end Bryant Turner and veteran slotback Terrance Edwards. Turner had three sacks in his last game and Edwards instantly gives Goltz a safety net to rely on.

 

CFL TRENDS + SDQL

Calgary is 2-9 ATS laying between a field goal and a touchdown on the road since 2007

team = Stampeders and AF and -3 > line >= -8

 

Since 2007, Calgary has the greatest win percentage of all CFL teams in games played on Friday (27-10-1 ATS, 73-percent)

team = Stampeders and day = Friday

 

When getting less than +7 points at home the Bombers have a record of 17-7-1 ATS since 2008.

team = Blue Bombers and HD and line < 7 and season >= 2008

 

KEYS TO THE GAME – STAMPEDERS

Challenge Goltz early and often with pressure and different looks on defense

Stuff the box and force the Bombers to beat them through the air

 

KEYS TO THE GAME – BOMBERS

Must get constant pressure on Levi Mitchell, who is making his first pro start

Contain Jon Cornish on the ground

 

As we saw in Thursday’s game between the Eskimos and Alouettes, late line moves can be the ultimate difference between win, lose or draw. Good luck if you are betting this game; we are taking a pass due to the sheer number of variables surrounding each team at key positions.

 

Pick Sixty staff writer Greg Simes has covered Canadian football for more than a decade and he’s off to a 3-1-1 start in 2013 with his CFL bets. Follow Greg on Twitter for CFL betting updates throughout the week!