The BC Lions have stumbled to a 1-4 start. This week they face a tough task, traveling to face a rested Roughriders squad who are also seeking their second win. Week 6 CFL Action is set for tonight!
The Lions and Riders have combined for just 2 overs and 11 unders in BC’s past 13 trips to Regina
BC Lions (1-4) at Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-3)
Line: Riders -5 and O/U 50
This is the first of a home and home between these two. Last week, the Lions were lit up 33-6 at home to Edmonton, falling to 1-4. It was the fourth time in five games that BC has surrendered at least 30 points.
QB Mike Reilly was 17 for 26 and he threw one pick, giving him a 5:5 TD-INT ratio on the year. BC also lost two fumbles for a -3 turnover margin. The Lions are -6 on the season in TOM and have yet to win a battle. They are tied with the Redblacks and Argos for worst in that department.
This total opened at 51.5 but it is down to 50 on gameday. Note that of all games in CFL action this year, totals are 10-11 O/U, avg’ing 53.6 PPG.
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LIFE OF REILLY
In his first eight seasons of CFL action, Reilly has never finished with a negative TD to INT ratio. His best season was with the Eskies in 2013 when he went 30:13. Reilly is eventually going to get this offense on track but the timeline is questionable. He’s been sacked 17 times and currently ranks near the bottom of the league in terms of QB rating.
In Week 5, Reilly finished with just 157 passing yards. In the veteran’s career he is just 2-10 SU following a game with fewer than 200 passing yards. Three games at Mosaic, Reilly went 1-2 SU in this spot and all three games stayed under the total.
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SATURDAY CFL PICKS
With a total of 50 or more we are seeing a 60% value on road teams off a game where they lost the turnover battle. In the CFL, early season games offer dozens of head scratching plays. Perhaps the first-year D and special teams players were not up to speed? And in November, weather can play a huge role in the outcomes, as can the increased meaning of games. Strip away the first few weeks of the season and playoff games and the percentage jumps a few points to 63%.
With these parameters in place we can also see an increased win percentage for under bets as the previous TOM loss goes up. And in the case of this game, where our road team lost the battle by a margin of 3 or more, the SDQL database shows a record of 20 overs and 39 unders (66% UNDER).
Saskatchewan has been a winning team the past two seasons and an “Under” team the past three. The Riders also have a 6-10-1 O/U record in divisional home games since 2016. Divisional home faves off a bye that lost at home before the break are often overpriced, going 1-6 ATS. In this case, the book may in fact be asking too much for the Green Riders at -5, but if the team leans on its D, I can certainly see this game staying under 50 points as they grind out a win.