The third game of a playoff series has produced a 60-percent Over/Under angle that coincides with another NBA system hitting 68-percent
With the series knotted at one game apiece the common online betting consensus is that San Antonio needs to take at least two of the next three games on home court to have any chance for a series upset. The Spurs are 13-3 SU and 10-5-1 the last 16 times hosting the Heat but as the saying goes, “These are not your granddaddy’s Miami Heat!”
Action on the side and total is split through two furious days of buildup towards this game and some sports betting outlets have moved back to 188 for a full-game total while others hold steady at 187.5. San Antonio is a small home favorite thanks in part to their 41-7 home record since the season began and although we have a slight lean to the home side, our play for tonight is on the first-half total.
San Antonio trailed by three points at the half in game 1 of this series and the two teams combined for 101 points. In game 2, the first-half total combined points were 95 and at home the Spurs outscored opponents 51.4 to 98.7 this season. The NBA odds for tonight’s game in the first-half show a total of 93.5 and we have two systems “live” courtesy of Greg Dempson Sports.
Teams who win 75-percent or more of their games straight-up that are coming off a home win (Heat) have produced a record of 10 overs and 22 unders in the past three seasons when the total is listed between 90.5 and 95.5 points. In the past 15 years the record goes to 37-73 O/U (66-percent).
In the third game of a playoff series the Over/Under record in the first-half since 1996 is 99 overs and 150 unders (60-percent) and the average total was 95 vs. and average combined score of 93.4.
For tonight’s contest our money is on the Heat and Spurs to stay “Under” 93.5 points in the first-half.
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The Eastern Conference Final features an Indiana Pacers team looking for playoff revenge against the Miami Heat
Oddsmakers opened the Heat as a 8.5-point favorite for game 1 of this series Wednesday and sportsbooks across the board dropped the line to -8 despite online betting sites reporting more than 70-percent action to the fan favored Heat side.
The popular debate between bettors tonight is whether or Indiana can take advantage of Miami’s rust from six days of rest the way Chicago did in Round 2.
Miami was only 1-3 ATS this season when playing with a longer than usual break between games and the team gave up almost 6 points per game (PPG) more than their season average of 94 PPG. When the Pacers took on an opponent who was forced to shake off some rust, Indiana was 3-0 SU/ATS and they scored 104.7 PPG which was more than 10 PPG higher than the team’s season scoring avg.
With an 8-point spread we side with tonight’s underdog making a game of it and staying close. Indiana has proven they can push the pace against rested foes and given the fact this is a playoff revenge spot, the Pacers have all the incentive in the world.
Pick: Take the Pacers
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The Miami Heat are coming off an upset loss and the San Antonio Spurs look to take a 2-0 lead over Golden State
When the betting windows closed on Monday’s NBA card it appeared as if nothing could stop the Miami Heat from steamrolling the Chicago Bulls. Through three quarters the game was close but a 35-24 run during the final frame gave the Bulls a 1-0 series lead and left everyone, including sportsbooks, wondering what was in store for Game 2.
[dropcap2]M[/dropcap2]iami is a -12.5 point favorite tonight vs. the Bulls with moneylines priced at a ridiculous 12 to 1. Totals are down to 186.5 with some outlets from an opening price of 187.5 and although it’s seen a recent correction, there is still a solid 71-percent playoff betting trend worth noting.
[quote_text color=”#000000″ text_color=”#ffffff”]Since 2003, home teams in the second game in the second round of the NBA playoffs are 33-9 SU and 28-14 ATS with 29 overs, 12 unders and 1 push (71-percent)[/quote_text]
When the home team is coming off a loss they have bounced back nine of ten times (8-2 ATS) but the Over/Under record evens out to 5-4-1, suggesting perhaps the side is a better play. Average margin of victory for home teams like Miami in this spot is nearly 14 points per game (104.4 to 90.8) but we should also note that tonight’s total is almost six points lower than the games in this sample. See all of this data for yourself by entering the text below into the search engine at KillerSports.com:
SDQL: playoffs=1 and series game=2 and H and round=2 and p:HL
THE ‘DUBS’ at THE SPURS
If a team took game 1 in their second round series by five points or less, such as the Spurs in their dramatic 129-127 overtime win Monday, results since 2003 show a 6-3 SU/ATS record with 7 overs and 2 unders. Only four of those nine games climbed over the 200-point plateau but regardless of whether or not this game sees extra time, it’s clear these teams know how to pick up the pace.
Both the Heat and Spurs were coming off extended rest before opening their second round series and signs of rust, especially with Miami, were quite evident. Look for Miami to crank up the intensity tonight as this game sails over the lowered total. We also suggest backing the Warriors and Spurs “Over” but try and hunt down a ‘204’; we all saw what a difference a half-point can make last night in New York.