Thursday Getaway Games: Pirates at Phillies

Pittsburgh looks for its third straight win over the Phillies in one of three afternoon games in Major League Baseball.


The Pirates (8-4) are off to a surprisingly strong start this year helped partially by a pair of back-to-back wins the last two days over Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay. Today Philly sends left-hander Cliff Lee (2-1, 2.83) to the hill and that’s forced a moneyline price of -178 on the home side with a total of 7 Over (-110).



Pittsburgh came back from a 3-1 deficit with runs in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings yesterday and the daily newsletter notes that when playing on the road, the Pirates have played “Over” 10-straight times since September, 2008 when wrapping up a series immediately following a comeback win where they allowed eight-plus hits.


The SDQL code for this Pittsburgh betting trend can be accessed with the following code:


team=Pirates and A and po:BL>0 and p:W and SG=SGS and date>=20080904 and po:hits>=8


Wind doesn’t look to be a factor in today’s contest and while Pittsburgh starter James McDonald (2-2, 4.12 ERA) is a subpar performer we should point out that when the total is 7 or less, the Pirates have played just 1 over to 7 unders in 2013.


Throughout the 2012 season Pittsburgh was 11-19 in these low total games with 10 overs, 17 unders and 3 pushes and their record on the road was just 4-11 (SDQL: team=Pirates and 7>=total and season=2012 and A).


As the Phils look to pull even in this series and head off for their five-game road trip on a high note, our suggested play for this contest is to lay a run on the Phillies (-124) using adjusted run lines.

Pick: Take the Phils -1 run (-124)


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MLB Picks: Tigers at Athletics

The Detroit Tigers completed a successful 4-2 homestand earlier this week and now head west for a series vs. the surging Oakland Athletics.


Detroit was 6-13 on the road vs. teams from the American League West in 2012 but that stat is a bit deceptive. After starting 4-4, the Tigers went 2-9 in the back-half vs. the Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Angels and a desperate A’s squad chasing down a playoff berth in October.


When today’s starter, Max Scherzer, was on the hill the Tigers were 2-0 in their first two AL West road games with 16 runs scored. His next two outings didn’t go nearly as well as the Tigers produced just five total runs in a pair of losses.


One of Scherzer’s early starts was against Bartolo Colon, who toes the rubber for the A’s in tonight’s series opener. The Tigers won that game 10-6 and in his career Colon is just 8-10 vs. the Tigers with a 5.60 earned run average.


Weather wise, the Tigers would seem happy to get out of Detroit for a trip to California but against the Yankees and Blue Jays, Detroit’s lineup was hitting everything in sight. The Tigers’ 6.67 runs per game (RPG) at home leads the majors and in three road games at Minnesota, Detroit is 1-2 with 2.67 RPG.


Oakland leads the majors with a 6.60 RPG average thanks to a six-game sweep the past week in Houston and Anaheim. They are 1-2 against Scherzer and all three games have gone over the total. In fact when Scherzer is favored against any opponent his last five games have all played over the number.


Sportsbooks offer this game with a line of Detroit -114 and 7.5 Over -120. We like how it sets up for the Tigers but it’s not often wise to step in front of moving freight train like the one Oakland is driving.

Pick: Take the Tigers-A’s Over 7.5 runs


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NCAA Picks – Louisville vs. Michigan

The Wolverines are getting huge support from their backers tonight as they look to knock of No. 1 Louisville, who online sportsbooks list at a 4-point favorite.


When Louisville faced Wichita State Saturday, most oddsmakers saw fit to book double-digit lines and the action still landed on the Cards at a 61-percent rate. Things have changed dramatically following Michigan’s 61-56 win over Syracuse and according to one sports betting site, the action on the Wolverines to win straight-up is as much as 68-percent!


Louisville’s win streak hit 15-straight with the 72-68 win over Wichita State and the Cards are 10-2 ATS their past 12 games overall. Nine of the 12 wins came against foes that had a winning record and we still expect the Cards to dictate the pace of play in this contest early.


Michigan does not make many mistakes in the offensive zone and can shoot 48-percent from the floor but the consistency from beyond the arc is a concern. The Cards are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 tournament games and they’ve waited 27 years to get back in this position since winning the college title in `86. Michigan has a 1-4 record in this game and No. 1 seeds show a 7-2 ATS mark the last nine opportunities, so we’ll lay the points on Louisville (-4) and hope for a good game.


Enjoy the contest everyone and follow Pick Sixty Sports on Twitter for late plays and updates!

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