Baseball Picks: Phillies at Giants

A couple of lefties take the hill tonight in San Francisco and we’ve got starter stats, betting trends and winning angles to support our first MLB pick of the week.

 

The San Francisco Giants are riding a hot streak and they’ll look to continue things tonight in the first game of a series vs. the Philadelphia Phillies.

 

[dropcap2]M[/dropcap2]adison Bumgarner (3-0, 1.55 ERA) is going for his fourth win and when starting the first game of a home series, the San Fran southpaw is 8-8 since 2010 with 4 overs, 11 unders and 1 push. Bumgarner suffered badly from run support the first eight starts of this sequence (1-7 SU) but in the eight most recent games the San Francisco bats have really come to work for him, outscoring teams 4.5 to 2.5 (7-1, 2-5-1 O/U).

 

Overall, Bumgarner is 23-12 (12-20-3 O/U) at home since 2011 with an average line of SF -150 and tonight’s MLB odds show the Giants -139 with a low total of 6 Under (-110).

 

[quote_text color=”#000000″ text_color=”#ffffff”]When two left-handed pitchers start, San Francisco is 7-2 the past few years, outscoring opponents 4.6 to 2.7 (avg). The only team to score more than three runs against SF was the Braves in August, 2012.[/quote_text]

 

Bumgarner got off to a rocky start in 2011, the Giants going 1-6 at home in his first seven starts, but the Giants were 3-1 in Bumgarner’s April-May home starts last year and so far in 2013 the team is 2-1 (0-3 O/U), outscoring the Rocks, Padres and D-Backs 9-7. Bumgarner allowed five earned runs through 19 innings of work in those games and his ‘innings pitched’ per game is steadily on the rise. He should be good for seven to eight innings in this game and the Giants bullpen ranks third in the majors with a 2.63 ERA (T-first overall with 13 saves).

 

– In two home starts vs. Philly since 2011, Bumgarner allowed four earned runs through 14 IP with 11 K and 3 BB.

 

Cliff Lee (2-2, 3.46 ERA) has had great numbers throughout his career in San Fran but after two good starts against the Mets and Braves this year, the lefty has hit a bit of a rough patch. Philly is 0-4 in Lee’s last four starts and been outscored 21-6. Lee’s averaging fewer than 7 IP in six starts and he’s backed by a pen that is 23rd in the league with a 4.41 ERA.

 

His last road start in Cleveland, Lee gave up four earned runs through six innings and the Phils have been outscored 10-4 in three road starts overall. In 2012, Philly was 3-7 in Lee’s first 10 road starts and the team ranks 26th in scoring with 3.53 RPG, averaging 2.79 on the road where they are 6-8.

 

KILLER SYSTEM

The KillerSports.com sports betting site has a free newsletter sent out daily that’s loaded with high-percentage trends and angles to help handicap the games. In today’s report, one of six solid angles shows that when Bumgarner starts at home as a small dog or favorite up to -170, the Giants are 13-0 after he threw 100-plus pitches in his last outing (net profit = $1,300). The SDQL text for that profile can be seen here:

starter=Madison Bumgarner and s:SPT>100 and 130>=s:line>=-170 and H and date>=20110706

 

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MLB PICKS

This is a tall price to play for a moneyline home favorite but San Fran is riding a hot streak and they match up well against the Phillies lineup. Keep this play to 1-unit and back the Giants tonight as our MLB play of the day.

Pick: Take the Giants

 

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Afternoon at Wrigley: Reds vs. Cubs

Cincinnati will try and improve on its atrocious road record Friday when they begin a three-game series with the Chicago Cubs.

 

The Reds have struggled to score runs away from Great America Ballpark this season and it has translated to a 3-10 road record, good enough for third in the National League Central. Cinci is scoring 3.15 runs per game (RPG) on the road compared to 5.44 RPG when playing at the ‘launch pad’ in Ohio, but they still hold a 3.5 game lead over the traditionally terrible Cubbies.

 

Mike Leake (1-1, 4.34 ERA) will face Carlos Villanueva (1-1, 2.29 ERA) and each of these pitchers will be aided by a strong wind blowing in from center field. The forecast for Wrigley Field last night showed a 50-percent chance of showers Friday with 11 mph winds blowing straight in from center but today it looks like a possible delay for a thunder shower is all these players will have to deal with.

 

Oddsmakers held off on releasing a total for this contest but betting sites have settled on Chicago -109 and 7 Under (-101). Cinci was originally pencilled as the -109 favorite but the Cubs have a 29-26 record the past few years in home games when the total is 7 runs or less and bettors are taking notice.

 

The “Over” has hit in 59-percent of those games (29-20-6 O/U) and given the performance of these two bullpens, it’s easy to see how this one could range into high side regardless of what the two starters do. Cinci has a 3.86 ERA from its relievers and the Cubs rank 21st in the league at 4.28 ERA.

 

Cinci is 2-5 on its current road trip and scoring just two runs per game but the Reds have won six consecutive games at Wrigley and are looking for payback vs. Villanueva after he was able to shut them down in a 4-2 win at Cinci April 23.

 

Chicago hit the ball well in its four-game series vs. the Padres and we also expect them to have some success vs. Leake.

 

Mike Estabrook is the home plate umpire and he’s 2-0-1 O/U this year with a 59-percent hit rate to the “Over” in National League games since 2008 (33-23-4 O/U). Overall, when the total is 7 or less, Estabrook is 14-6-4 O/U since 2006.

Pick: Take the Over

 

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MLB Betting Angle: Astros at Yankees

The New York Yankees are coming off an impressive four-game sweep of the Blue Jays and now get set to host the Houston Astros

 

New York is leading the league in home run power despite a rash of injuries to their offensive superstars in 2013 but thanks to the powerful database at Killer Sports, we’ve uncovered one angle that was “live” eight times last season for 1 over and 7 unders.

 

This profile looks at teams who beat the Toronto Blue Jays in back-to-back games to finish a series and were then listed as home favorites the next day in Game 1 of a new series: The SDQL for that angle sets up like this:

HF and p:W and pp:W and po:team = Blue Jays and season >= 2012 and rest = 0 and SG = 1

 

The only “Over” was April 20 and since then this angle is a perfect 7-0 for +7 units with the favorite going 5-2 and outscoring their guest 2.9 to 2.1 (average).

HF and p:W and pp:W and po:team = Blue Jays and rest = 0 and SG = 1 and date>=20120427

 

The average moneyline sportsbooks were charging on these teams was -145 so my theory is that these were good enough teams to beat an average club (Jays) two games in a row (which means they likely won the series), and they are now favored at home (no travel) with a decent starter who must be feeling pretty confident about notching himself a ‘W’.

 

New York and Andy Pettitte (3-1, 2.22 ERA) have all of these traits and they are also 13-0 the past few years behind Pettitte if he threw at least 100 pitches in his previous start (1-3 O/U last year in four home games).

 

There is a cross wind in New York that could knock a few balls down and the home plate umpire is Ed Hickox. Since 2006, Hickox has a record of 31-55-5 O/U in American League games including three of three unders at Yankee Stadium since 2011. Each of those games finished with fewer than seven total runs and the Over/Under odds for tonight’s contest are listed at 7.5 Under (-109).

 

Our system play for tonight is on the Astros and Yankees to stay “Under” 7.5 runs!

 

The Andy Pettitte trend listed above if just one of the great angles listed in today’s MLB Newsletter available free at KillerSports.com. Don’t miss out on the top winners every day, sign up with KillerSports.com and start getting the free newsletter sent to your inbox every day!