Broncos – Chargers, Week 7 NFL Trends with Benefits

Handicapping notes and a prediction for today’s Broncos – Chargers matchup!

The Denver Broncos returned from their bye week to a disappointing upset loss in front of their home town fans. This week Denver embarks on a critical three-game road that includes back-to-back divisional games vs. the Chargers and Chiefs.

NFL odds for this game have edged back and forth by a point on either of ‘Pick’. The total is currently sitting around 40 or 40.5 with the majority of online sportsbooks. Our power rating picks, which are 4-1 ATS this year, have identified Denver as one of today’s strongest plays.


Line: Denver -1 and O/U 40.5

This is a huge line swing for Denver, going from -11.5 last week in their loss to the New York Giants. The past five years or so, small faves or dogs of any number off such a chalky line are on a serious run. Their record at Sports Database is 14-2 SU/ATS, seen with this SDQL code:

SDQL: A and p:line < -10 and season > 2011 and week > 3 and line > -2

Road teams in the first of a three-game trip have been in a little slump of late but overall, they still have a solid 63-percent ATS hit-rate. We’re also seeing trends to the “Under” in this profile and with the Broncos defense, I like Denver’s chances in a lower scoring game.

Broncos - Chargers trends

The recent history in the Broncos – Chargers series favors Denver, 11-2

Here is another angle “live” on this game showing a 74-percent hit-rate on the “Under” since 2005. We’re looking for two division rivals that are allowing between 18-23 points per game. When the total is between 38 and 41 points, the record is 6 overs, 17 unders and 2 pushes.

SDQL: 18 <= tA(o:points) <= 23 and 18 <= oA(o:points) <= 23 and H and 38 < total <= 41 and DIV and season > 2004

Two weeks back from a bye, divisional road teams with a solid D are on a 5-0 SU/ATS run when coming off a home fave loss. Regardless of what happened upon their return, these teams are 17-8 ATS when the line is within +/-3 points of ‘Pick’.


Denver lost WR Emmanuel Sanders (ankle) last week but QB Trevor Siemian and WR Demaryius Thomas will start. The Chargers have played decent ball this year but I don’t expect that to last. Off an embarrassing loss, we’re backing Denver to start this trip off with a win.

TWB Tips: Take the Broncos

Get more on this and every other matchup in the weekly NFL Report!