Breeders’ Cup Mile: Winning Picks

Our resident handicapper discusses strategy for Toronado in multi-race wagering for this year’s running of the Breeders’ Cup Mile

This year’s edition of the BC Mile looks like a lot different with the absence of Wise Dan who has won this race the past two years. I was hoping he could make it back to defend his title and match the great Goldikova as the only horse to have ever won three consecutive Breeders’ Cup races. Speaking of Goldikova, her little brother Anodin is racing in this year’s edition. For that reason alone this horse warrants consideration

 

Another turf races means right back to the Euros although I do think that with absolutely no pace in this race the #2 Obviously will be gunning and looking to steal it going wire to wire. He has the home court advantage angle going for him with four wins over this course and eight of 12 wins at the distance. He’s been training great for this race and he always fires off the shelf. The negatives are that his best races are just slightly below the top Euro and his trainer is 0 for 20 with horses coming off a layoff between 61-180 days. But I think his odds will be around 10-1 so I’ll probably use him in a few pick 3’s and I’ll definitely use him underneath in the exacta and in the triactor.

 

My favourite Euro in here is #5 Toronado. He comes into this race as Europe’s best horse at this year’s BC races. His past performances are impressive, scattered with all Group 1’s. His race against Europe’s best miler in Kingman was excellent and he just gave up the lead in the final strides to that one. Comparatively, Kingman trounced #4 Mustajeeb. The one potential negative is the unknown of how this horse will adapt to racing left-handed, which is something he’s never done. All of his races are essentially above the Beyer par and if he runs back to any of his previous five or six perrformances he’ll be near impossible to beat. He’s going to be short odds of around 8-5.

 

The other Euros in here to consider are the #4 Mustajeeb who is a lightly raced three-year-old. His trainer has a poor record at BC races and he’s been racing in Group 2 and 3 races. His only start in a G1 was when he got easily handled by Kingsman. I think he is more likely to be second or third and I don’t give him much of chance to beat the fave. His morning line is only 6-1 so I don’t see much value there either. The #9 Anodin has already raced against the top choice and lost relatively easily so I don’t see any reason to think he could turn the tables today. He doesn’t like to win very often either which is a concern.

 

The three-year-old filly #3 Veda will likely be the longest priced Euro along with the #14. There’s no doubt she has talent but on paper it looks like she’s going to have to improve by almost eight lengths to threaten Toronado for the win. Leave this out of your exactas. The #14 Karakontie is going to be very wide throughout and doesn’t have the ability to overcome that post so try and avoid using that horse altogether.

BC BOTTOM LINE

I’m going to key Toronado in my multi-race wagers and use him in top of the #2 and #4 and #9 in exactas and tri’s. I’ll probably box the #3 and #5 in an exacta as well just in case the speed is holding and Obviously digs in late. His Beyers are only three to four points below Toronado and speed has been holding on the turf close recently. Good luck! ***Editor’s note: The column originally listed the #3 in the bottom when it was meant to say “the #2 and #4 and #9 in exactas and tri’s (keyed with Toronado”. Sorry for any confusion.

 

For more Breeders’ Cup information check out Saturday’s Turf Predictions!