Betting the NFL Draft has shifted from an off-season pastime that paired well with NBA Playoffs into a full-on obsession for depraved sports junkies. We’ve got rankings, notes and the latest QB odds for those who are betting the 2020 NFL Draft.
Betting the NFL Draft: Quarterbacks
In a sports betting world that is nearly void of live events, betting the NFL Draft is top of every football fans list this weekend. The list of props includes top QB drafted, conference Over/Unders and positional rankings. 5 Dimes even has a category for First Round Matchups in which you simply decide whether a team will opt for an offensive or defensive player with their first selection. As you might expect, Cincinnati is off the board.
We chose to focus on the quarterback position and included odds along with a few notes on the top prospects.
1. Joe Burrow, LSU
PFF Rank: 1st
NF Rank: 2nd
Odds Watch: 5 Dimes is charging -8,500 for Burrow as first overall pick
The Cincinnati Bengals locked down the first pick with their abysmal 2-14 SU record in 2019. If you look at the past two drafts, it stands reason that Cinci could improve its record substantially with a new leader.
Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray
2018 Record: 3-13 SU
2019 Record: 5-10-1 SU and 10-6 ATS
Cleveland Browns: Baker Mayfield
2017 Record: 0-16 SU
2018 Record: 7-8-1 SU and 10-6 ATS
Burrow has great wheels, accuracy (76.3%) and play making ability. He also steps up his game in a big way against top competition. Burrow’s TD to INT ratio in five games against Top 10 defenses last season was a remarkable 16:1.
Oddsmakers have set the Bengals’ season win total (SWT) at 5 and along with divisional matchups, Cinci will face the Titans, Cowboys and Chargers. They’ll also travel to Indianapolis, Houston and Philadelphia. The Heisman Trophy winner will have his work cut out for him but after what we saw in 2019, there is no telling how far he could go.
2. Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama
PFF Rank: 2nd
NF Rank: 1st
Odds Watch: Betting Tua as the second QB is listed at -155
First of all, it’s fair to point out that Number Fire ranks Tua as the top pick IF he hadn’t suffered any injuries. Meanwhile, you can find more obscure previews for betting the NFL draft with Justin Herbert ahead of Tua for the exact same reason. Washington is second on the overall draft board, followed by the Lions and Giants, but the thought is that Miami (5th) will engineer a trade to lockdown the Alabama product.
Hypothetical projections aside, we have to believe that the Skins will target DE Chase Young (Ohio State) with the second overall pick. Betting Tua as top QB drafted only pays back at 10/1. Not great value when you consider Burrow’s odds. In the overall picture, total QBs drafted first round is listed at 4.5 “Under” -930. In the case of Tua, it’s hard finding any value worth betting.
3. Justin Herbert, Oregon
PFF Rank: 3rd
NF Rank: 3rd
Odds Watch: Betting Herbert as the second QB taken pays +130 and third QB -135.
After the release of Philip Rivers (Colts), selecting Herbert with the sixth overall pick makes perfect sense for the Chargers. LA went 5-11 SU last season, one year removed from its playoff run in 2018. The Bolts haven’t hosted a playoff game since the 2009 season and as they try to sweep the turmoil of their past few gypsy seasons under the mat, a new face for the franchise is essential.
In eight of the past 12 drafts, the Chargers opted for a defensive player with their first round pick. They have seven picks this year and will also look to address depth at the O-Line and linebacker positions. But QB is the top priority and with his offensive background, HC Anthony Lynn knows it.
Of course the elephant in the room is that Miami could shock everyone by selecting Herbert for their QB, leaving the Chargers with the difficult decision of weighing Tua’s injury history. Herbert has great potential but will need coaching to develop his game. His footwork and lack of precision are the kind of things NFL defenders drool over.
Notable Matchups for 2020:
Dolphins: Bills (2x), Pats (2x), Chiefs, Rams, Seahawks, 49ers
Chargers: Chiefs (2x), Patriots, Saints, Bucs
Miami’s SWT is 6 while the Chargers are sitting at 7.5 wins. There is even talk that if Herbert went as the second QB, Jordan Love (Utah State) could move into the mix as the Chargers pivot. Love as the third QB pays back at 10 to 1 odds! One thing’s for sure is that when betting the NFL Draft, you have to expect a healthy dose of surprises.