Key stats and picks from the Indians vs. Rangers and Red Sox vs. Rays including starting pitcher trends, updated odds and winning systems
With a handful of baseball series already underway this week we have an early look at projected umpires in the majors along with baseball odds and starting pitchers. Here are a few key trends “live” for Tuesday with SDQL stats and analysis. Click on the highlighted SDQL links below for a complete rundown on the umpire trends from our friends at SportsDatabase.com.
INDIANS AT RANGERS
Current MLB odds favor Texas -170 and the total is 9.5 Over (-116). Wind is blowing in from right and the scheduled home plate umpire (HPU) is Mark Wegner.
– Since April 8, 2012, home teams have a 20-7 (74-percent) record with Wegner when the total is between O/U 8 and 10
The Indians are 68-39-5 O/U (64-percent) since May 09, 2004 as a road dog vs. a team that has won at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $2505 when playing the over. Cleveland has been outscored 5.7 to 5.0 in this profile so while it is unlikely they can pull off an upset this could be a good spot for them to put some runs on the board. Cleveland is 18-7-1 O/U its past 26 starts vs. a left-handed starter including a recent stretch of 7-1 O/U.
Consider the Indians-Rangers Over 9.5 runs
RED SOX at RAYS
Current baseball odds favor Boston -125 with a total of 8 Over (-110) and the scheduled HPU is Chris Guccione.
– Guccione is an “Over” ump and American League games with a total of 8 or less are 11-5-1 O/U with him behind HP since 2006. Home teams are 6-11 in those games.
In Jon Lester’s most recent start against the Rays (May 15), Boston shelled Tampa 9-2 and since October 18, 2012, underdogs playing with revenge has resulted in a record of 65 overs, 38 unders and 2 pushes (63-percent). Teams are scoring 4.8 RPG against Tampa Bay when Roberto Hernandez starts at home and four of five games went “Over” the posted total. And here is an interesting system looking at teams off an extra innings loss:
The SDQL allows bettors to refine their searches and breaking this extra inning profile down to American League games in this Over/Under range produced the best results. As you can see by clicking the hyperlink, AL home dogs playing off an extra innings loss (no rest) with a total between O/U 8 and 10 are just 29-45 with 40 overs, 32 unders and 2 pushes. On average, the road fave has outscored the host 5.4 to 4.4 in this spot, ranging back to 2004.
Consider Boston -125 and the Sox-Rays Over 8 runs
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