Top money making baseball trends to help MLB handicappers down the stretch
Baseball trends take time to develop and as we enter the second-half, it’s time to take a look at some of the best/worst performers in Major League Baseball. Everyone has had ample opportunity to get a feel for this years teams and with SDQL, it’s easy to stack players, parks and umps up against historical data.
Here are a few key baseball trends to keep an eye on during the second-half of the season.
Home teams off the All-Star break have held a small edge, going 109-85 SU (.562 WP). The average line was -127 and that’s right inline with the implied probability (.559). Home teams outscored their opponents 4.56 to 4.24 and each side averaged around nine hits.
The hotspot for home faves is on the moneyline of -140 or more. This subgroup has gone 56-16 (78-percent WP) for +$2,906 and there are three teams “live” in 2017.
1. Houston -170 over Minnesota
The Astros are 2-11 O/U after the All-Star break, suggesting some potential value on the Twins team total to stay “Under” 4 at -120. Note that the Twins this season are 5-1 O/U on the road with at least a day of rest. For runline bettors, Houston is available at +125.
2. Milwaukee -163 over Philly
The Brew Crew has won three-straight times at home following the All-Star break, in 2012, `13 and `15. They were favored in each contest. Milwaukee is 34-17 at home with rest since 2011 and that’s the third best record in the majors behind the Angels and Dodgers.
Baseball Trends + SDQL Says This!
The Milwaukee Brewers are 18-4 at home with rest as a moneyline favorite of -135 or more. Track this trend at SportsDatabase.com!
The Phillies are 2-8 this year with rest so it will take an upset of epic proportions for them to get the ‘W’ in Milwaukee. Consider betting Philadelphia’s team total “Under” 4 at -105 for a lower coast alternative. They have only scored more than four runs inn 14 of 46 road games all year.
3. New York Mets -140 over Colorado
Mets starter Jacob deGrom has a great record in July-August, going 21-9 since entering the league in 2014. He also won five-straight starts before the break, allowing just seven earned runs. deGrom is 18-8 with extra rest in the second-half with totals going 16-10 to the “Over”.
The total for the Rocks at Mets is only 7.5 and Jon Gray’s last six road starts with extra rest off the break, his opponent has scored 6-6-5-7-3 runs. Circle the Mets team total “Over” 4 at -120 as the value play from this game.
TOP MLB BETTING TRENDS
The Yankees, Cardinals and Angels have produced the best records in the second-half since 2004
The Dodgers, Cubs and Nationals have the best regular season, second-half records the past three years.
The best second-half money makers in recent years are the Angels, Orioles and Cubs.
You have made big money betting AGAINST the A’s, Rocks, D-Backs, Reds and Giants in the second-half the past three years.
The only three teams showing a second-half profit for “Over” bettors in recent years are the Twins, Chi-Sox and Phillies.
Use caution betting “Over” with the O’s, Yanks, Angels and Rocks in the second-half. These four teams have netted a total of $6,442 for “Under” bettors in the second-half the past three seasons.
The biggest homer ump in the second-half is Laz Diaz, going 33-13 (71.7% WP)
The top road warrior is Allan Porter. Road teams in the second-half are 28-18 (.609 WP).
For overs, go with Gabe Morales and Manny Gonzalez. For unders, circle Kerwin Danley.