Baseball Strategy; MLB Umpire Stats

The Oakland A’s ran up a 10-spot on the Houston Astros in the series opener and today look to add to their American League-best road record with another ‘W’

The A’s pounded Houston for 10 runs in the series opener Thursday. Jesse Chavez has started off hot this season and he faces an offense ranked near the bottom of the league in runs (29th), hits (30th) and RBI (29th). Houston does have top 10 home runs and they are mid-pack in walks but Chavez hasn’t given up a lot of either. In four starts the righty has issued just five walks and allowed three long balls. April 20 against Houston, Chavez held the Stros to one run on four hits through six, striking out six and walking three. The run came via a Marwin Gonzalez dinger, hitting out of the eight spot, Gonzo’s only HR of the season. At home the Stros are hitting .177 vs. righties compared to an overall average of .190 (.212 in their last ten games).

 

In Brad Peacock’s only start this year he held the A’s to two runs on five hits through five. Last year against Oakland the right-hander had 21 K through 15.2 IP (three starts). He’ll benefit today from third-year HP umpire Jordan Baker, who has helped home teams to a 31-22 record resulting in 16 overs, 35 unders and 2 pushes. With home dogs (any total), the only winners were smallish pups, and all six home dogs of more than +145 finished under the posted number. The average final score in those games totalled 5.8 runs per game.

 

In any game of a series, Houston is 12-35 at home off a home loss since the start of the 2013 season. Dating back to 2005, this Triple-A caliber team also shows a record of just 9 wins and 26 losses as a large home dog (+140 or more) off a loss in which they never held a lead when it’s not the first game of a series (15-19-1 O/U). Visit SportsDatabase.com to view the chart detailing every game in that team trend!

 

Online sportsbooks have posted the A’s as a -180 favorite with a total of 8.5 OV (-120) and it looks like the over is getting action. The first-half total is 4.5 even or 5 with juice and given the facts we’ve outlined here, this looks like a good spot to test the under.

Pick: Take the A’s and Astros UNDER 5 runs (-125) in the first 5 innings

 

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