Baseball Picks: Rays at Yankees

Rays pitcher Archer has just 1 over in 10 starts this season


The Rays are red-hot and looking to build on their lead in the AL East in today’s matchup vs. the New York Yankees. In this 1:05 ET start we have two pitchers in excellent form; the Rays start Chris Archer who has an ERA of 2.76. He’s gone 4–0 with a 1.62 ERA over his last six starts while winning the last three behind a 0.41 ERA and a WHIP of 0.773. The rookie right-hander began his four-game winning streak with a 3–1 victory at Yankee Stadium on June 23, yielding one run in six innings. What’s even more impressive is the fact that Archer has allowed only one earned run in his last three starts lasting a combined 22 innings, zero home runs, 13 hits, 4 walks and 11 strikeouts. I also note that Archer is 1–9 to the under in his 10 starts this season.


[quote_text color=”#000000″ text_color=”#ffffff”]The Rays are 15–21 in day games this season and average 4.1 RPG in afternoon tilts[/quote_text]


The Yankees start Ivan Nova who has an ERA of 3.66 (2.93 at home), along with a WHIP of 1.109. In Nova’s last 3 starts he has an ERA of 2.25 (WHIP of 0.875), while lasting a combined 24 innings allowing six earned runs on 15 hits (two home runs) while walking six and striking out 21. Nova is 3–6 to the under vs. the Rays lifetime. The Yankees average only 3.7 runs per game (RPG) at home and 3.7 RPG in day games. The Yankees are 13–28 to the under when off a loss this season.


And finally, since 2007, umpire Jim Reynolds has been behind home plate three times with Tampa Bay and saw scores of 2–1, 2–0 and 2–1 after five innings producing 3 unders in the first five innings. In his two days games behind home plate vs. the Yankees both games resulted in five combined runs and pushed on the 5 inning total. When the O/U was 9 or higher, Reynolds has gone 4–8–1 to the under in American League contests.


We’re playing this contest two ways:


1.0-unit on Rays/Yankees under 4 runs +105


2.0-units on Rays/Yankees under 4.5 runs –115


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