Top angles supporting our baseball best bet on the Over/Under
The Pittsburgh Pirates had won five-straight before making their recent to Colorado where they were swept in three-straight by the Rockies and outscored 19-7. Coming off a 4-3 extra inning win in the series opener against St. Louis the Bucs look to left-handed starter Francisco Liriano to try and end the slump.
[dropcap2]S[/dropcap2]helby Miller is starting for the Cards and baseball odds favor the home side by a slight -116 margin but the moneyline odds have been in a freefall on speculation Matt Holliday (ankle) could sit this game out. The total on this game is O/U 7 with a majority of online sports betting sites starting to show juice to the low side.
ROCKED IN THE ROCKIES
Pittsburgh’s annual pilgrimage to the Rocky Mountains started to produce some wins the past couple years but 2013 will not be looked back on with fond memories. Liriano started the opener and he was rocked for 10 runs in 2.1 innings, arguably the worst start of his 10 year MLB career. After giving up 7-plus earned runs his previous start Liriano has a 2-7 O/U record all-time including a 0-5 O/U record when looking to bounce back away from home. Liriano’s team went 4-1 in those five road games and they were a dog in all but one.
Liriano is not the first starter humbled at Coors Field and he surely won’t be the last but with the power of SDQL we can see that most MLB starters have done a decent job recovering from their “Rocky” starts. Check out this code from SportsDatabase.com:
Since 2004, as long as a pitcher went into Colorado off a start where he allowed four or less runs, his team is 3-19-2 O/U on the road with a total of 8.5 or less following the rough start in the Rockies.
SIT OR STAND?
The Cards are just 3-5 in the first eight games of this 10-game home stand but they have a chance to build some momentum following yesterday’s 4-3 comeback win. The Cardinals are 14-4 since July 31, 2010 after an extra inning win including an 8-0 record at home where they’ve outscored opponents 6.5-1.9.
Home teams off a walk-off win are also on a 27-7 run against the same opponent, producing a profit of nearly 20 units since June 30, 2013 and you’ll notice from the SDQL link that only seven of those 34 games made it over the posted total.
The Cards are hosting their third straight series and when the total is low with a tight moneyline, the “Under” has made money in this spot every month of the season since 2004. Miller makes his first start since taking a liner off the elbow against Los Angeles and before that, Miller had split two road games at Cincinnati and Atlanta. His last home start, Miller was perfect through six against the Phils and this year he is 6-2 at home with a 1.74 ERA. Each of these starters performed well in limited action vs. their respective opponent tonight and while the Cards have home field, they are only hitting .238 against lefties and .189 the past ten. Wind won’t be much of a factor but the current forecast shows a light breeze straight in from center. The home plate ump is Hunter Wendelstedt and he’s generally a bit of a “homer” but with a low total, lefties have done just fine on the road against right-handed starters. We have a lean to the Pirates in this game but our official play is on the total.
Pick: Take the Under
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