Baseball Picks: Phillies at Giants

A couple of lefties take the hill tonight in San Francisco and we’ve got starter stats, betting trends and winning angles to support our first MLB pick of the week.

 

The San Francisco Giants are riding a hot streak and they’ll look to continue things tonight in the first game of a series vs. the Philadelphia Phillies.

 

[dropcap2]M[/dropcap2]adison Bumgarner (3-0, 1.55 ERA) is going for his fourth win and when starting the first game of a home series, the San Fran southpaw is 8-8 since 2010 with 4 overs, 11 unders and 1 push. Bumgarner suffered badly from run support the first eight starts of this sequence (1-7 SU) but in the eight most recent games the San Francisco bats have really come to work for him, outscoring teams 4.5 to 2.5 (7-1, 2-5-1 O/U).

 

Overall, Bumgarner is 23-12 (12-20-3 O/U) at home since 2011 with an average line of SF -150 and tonight’s MLB odds show the Giants -139 with a low total of 6 Under (-110).

 

[quote_text color=”#000000″ text_color=”#ffffff”]When two left-handed pitchers start, San Francisco is 7-2 the past few years, outscoring opponents 4.6 to 2.7 (avg). The only team to score more than three runs against SF was the Braves in August, 2012.[/quote_text]

 

Bumgarner got off to a rocky start in 2011, the Giants going 1-6 at home in his first seven starts, but the Giants were 3-1 in Bumgarner’s April-May home starts last year and so far in 2013 the team is 2-1 (0-3 O/U), outscoring the Rocks, Padres and D-Backs 9-7. Bumgarner allowed five earned runs through 19 innings of work in those games and his ‘innings pitched’ per game is steadily on the rise. He should be good for seven to eight innings in this game and the Giants bullpen ranks third in the majors with a 2.63 ERA (T-first overall with 13 saves).

 

– In two home starts vs. Philly since 2011, Bumgarner allowed four earned runs through 14 IP with 11 K and 3 BB.

 

Cliff Lee (2-2, 3.46 ERA) has had great numbers throughout his career in San Fran but after two good starts against the Mets and Braves this year, the lefty has hit a bit of a rough patch. Philly is 0-4 in Lee’s last four starts and been outscored 21-6. Lee’s averaging fewer than 7 IP in six starts and he’s backed by a pen that is 23rd in the league with a 4.41 ERA.

 

His last road start in Cleveland, Lee gave up four earned runs through six innings and the Phils have been outscored 10-4 in three road starts overall. In 2012, Philly was 3-7 in Lee’s first 10 road starts and the team ranks 26th in scoring with 3.53 RPG, averaging 2.79 on the road where they are 6-8.

 

KILLER SYSTEM

The KillerSports.com sports betting site has a free newsletter sent out daily that’s loaded with high-percentage trends and angles to help handicap the games. In today’s report, one of six solid angles shows that when Bumgarner starts at home as a small dog or favorite up to -170, the Giants are 13-0 after he threw 100-plus pitches in his last outing (net profit = $1,300). The SDQL text for that profile can be seen here:

starter=Madison Bumgarner and s:SPT>100 and 130>=s:line>=-170 and H and date>=20110706

 

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MLB PICKS

This is a tall price to play for a moneyline home favorite but San Fran is riding a hot streak and they match up well against the Phillies lineup. Keep this play to 1-unit and back the Giants tonight as our MLB play of the day.

Pick: Take the Giants

 

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