Baseball Picks: Orioles at Blue Jays

Baltimore has struggled on the road against lefties but tonight they’ll have a chance to tee-off on Blue Jays rookie Sean Nolin, making his Major League debut


The Baltimore Orioles are looking to even their series with the Toronto Blue Jays Friday and they’ll get a chance to welcome a rookie pitcher to the majors in the process.


Left-hander Sean Nolin makes his big league debut for Toronto tonight and there are plenty of big bats in the Orioles lineup who could make life rough on the San Jacinto product but despite their power, the O’s are only hitting .235 on the road against lefties this season.


When looking for revenge on the road against a lefty starter the O’s are 30-75 since 2004 and that includes a 9-34 record vs. American League East opponents. See for yourself at by pressing this link:


SDQL: team=Orioles and o:STL and P:AL and p:A and DIV


Orioles’ right-hander Chris Tillman (3-2, 3.52) will be making his seventh career start against Toronto and he’s won the two most recent (2011 and 2013) but both games were at Camden Yards. In Tillman’s previous four starts at the Rogers Centre he was rocked for seven home runs and it’s worth noting because in his three most recent starts this month, Tillman’s been taken downtown five times.


Toronto is looking for some payback of their own after being held to just a run April 22 against Tillman and with home field the Jays are 94-61 in this spot the past 10 years.


SDQL: t:team=Blue Jays and H and oS:W and oS:season=season and date>=20040422


Home faves this year are hitting 62-percent (57-35) against teams like the Jays who have won 2-plus games but on the road the fave is pretty much a .500 proposition (19-18) and the juice makes it a losing venture.


SDQL: AF and 2<=o:streak and date>=20130401


A lot of the wins were in the -125 and up class, too. Take a smaller sample with teams who were road faves under -120 and their record drops to 8-12 for a loss of -5.7 units.


SDQL: AF and 2<=o:streak and date>=20130401 and line>-121


Online sportsbooks opened this line at O’s -120 and the home dog has been taking a good deal of action but you can still find the Jays at even money with some outlets. The home plate umpire is Dan Bellino and at 4-6-1 O/U, Bellino is on his way to constructing a fifth-straight “Under” season.


We lean towards the home side in this matchup but the Jays have been known to tone things down after opening a series with a blowout win. It’s demonstrated here:


SDQL: t:team=Blue Jays and D and tpo:runs + 5<=tp:runs and SG!=1 and date>=20041002


With an inflated number of 9 Over (-115) our pick for tonight is on the total.

Pick: Take the Under