Baseball Picks: Angels at White Sox

The Los Angeles Angels have a chance at their first four-game winning streak of 2013 tonight when they take on the Chicago White Sox

 

We preview this week’s Sunday Night Baseball game between the Angels and White Sox with betting angles and starting pitcher info along with our prediction.

 

[dropcap2]T[/dropcap2]onight’s game features a pair of lefty starting pitchers in CJ Wilson (3-1, 3.86 ERA) and Chris Sale (3-2, 3.42 ERA) and online sportsbooks are posting MLB odds of White Sox -125 with a total of 7.5. It’s the 18th time the home team has been favored on Sunday night with two southpaw starters and the home side has a 12-5 record but the more recent streak dips to just 2-5.

 

During that span (since 2009), the only two home teams to score more than three runs were the New York Yankees, twice in 2009 (the two winners) and one of those games was in August with the other falling in late-October. The five losses all took place between April 29 and June 24 and home teams averaged just 2.4 RPG (to 6.2 RPG).

 

This SDQL from the Sports Database provides a better look:

day=Sunday and HF and STL and o:STL and NGT and playoffs=0 and season>=2009 and month in [4,5,6]

 

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The Yankees (5.62) led the majors in scoring for 2009 and they were third in home scoring with 5.56 runs per game

 

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The Chi-Sox this year are 29th at 3.44 RPG (H and A) and are hitting .245 vs. left-handers (17th) while the Angels vs. lefties hit .253 (T-13th). The Angels have won five-straight in this series dating back to Sept. 21, 2012 and LA is 4-7 in series finales this year but Wilson started three of those four victories and opponent’s scored a total of just eight runs (1-3-4). This is Wilson’s fourth consecutive road start and the last three outings he is 2-1, giving up 7 ER in 18 IP with 2 longballs, 9 BBs and 26 K.

 

Wilson has three home starts vs. the Chi-Sox the past three seasons and the first two went well but he didn’t have his stuff in 2012 (6 BB in 3.1 IP). Chicago did not hit any home runs off Wilson during those starts and during his career he has allowed a total of just 10 extra base hits vs. the Southsiders.

 

Check the Weather: The wind is blowing straight out to CF in Chicago (8 mph) and the Angels are 13-7 O/U on the road while the Sox are 5-9 O/U at home.

 

The Sox have a good track record wrapping up a series at home on Sunday night (7.2 RPG) but the most recent occurrence was in 2010. LA has not won a road series finale on Sunday night since Apr. 27, 2008 but Wilson gets a good matchup tonight.

 

Road teams in this spot are just 1-5 this year and 41-62 since 2010 but the record balances off a bit if the home team has lost the past two games (6-4) and when the home team is facing a lefty they are 0-3, scoring 2-2-2 runs in those three matchups. See for yourself with the following link:

 

SG = SGS and season>=2008 and H and NGT and day = Sunday and WP<50 and p:L and pp:L

 

MLB PICKS

It looks like the baseball odds maker did a good job on this moneyline but if Wilson gets comfortable this game could cruise along at a nice pace with the potential for under bettors to cash. We are going with a team total tonight based on Wilson’s road record and his recent history vs. the Sox lineup.

Pick: Take the White Sox Team Total Under 3.5 runs (+104)

 

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