Baseball Best Bets: Tigers at Blue Jays

Toronto has fallen five games back of first and things don’t get any easier Friday when the Central-leading Detroit Tigers roll into town looking to avenge a series-sweep by Toronto earlier this season

Detroit is listed as a -123 moneyline favorite for the series opener with Anibal Sanchez taking the hill against right-hander RA Dickey. Max Scherzer and David Price are scheduled to pitch on the weekend so the series price is Tigers (-150) but we’ve found value on the team total section of our online book’s MLB offerings and booked this rare Best Bet early Friday.

TIGERS UNTAMEABLE

At a first glance, Dickey’s career numbers vs. Detroit look good but those are spread over a long period of time and not one of the starts since 2003 was beyond July 5th. Since mid-July this season, Dickey has averaged fewer than 7.0 IP per start and allowed 5-4-1-5 ER in those four outings. His last eight home starts this year, only one opponent (A’s on May 24) was held to less than 4.0 total runs (the eight teams avg’d 5.5 RPG).

 

After sweeping the Rocks at home, Detroit went into the Bronx and got spanked. The last time they hosted Toronto (June 3-5), the Jays swept em and the last team who came into Rogers with revenge from a home sweep in mind put 14 runs on the board (Boston on July 21). Detroit may not click double-digits but we’re thinking they could come fairly close.

 

The Tigers hit righties well and on the road this year vs. RHP they are scoring 5.01 RPG. With Sanchez, Detroit is 7-3 on the road against righties and averaging 6.6 RPG since July of last year. The SDQL link for that set of games is available here from SportsDatabase.com:

SDQL: starter = Anibal Sanchez and A and o:STR and season >= 2013 and date >= 20130706

 

Toronto is a hard team to get a read on right now and they are desperate, but a look up and down the roster shows a lot of holes that are hard to fill. Brett Lawrie’s return from the disabled list was short lived and the Jays are still missing Adam Lind and Edwin Encarnacion. Melky Cabrera (elbow) is questionable after leaving last night’s game but regardless of his status, we are leaving the Blue Jay bats out of this equation.

Best Bet: Take the Detroit Tigers Team Total to play OVER 4 runs (-111)

 

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http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?output=default&sdql=starter%3DAnibal+Sanchez+and+A+and+o%3ASTR+and+season%3E%3D2013+and+date%3E%3D20130706&submit=S+D+Q+L+%3C—-%21