Toronto has streaked atop the AL East standings and Sunday at Rogers Centre they’ll look to JA Happ for one more ‘W’ against an A’s team who are hoping to close out their three-stop journey strong
A’s are wrapping up this nine game road trip and some teams might be ready to pack their bags and go home but after two low scoring losses, I don’t think OAK will go quietly. Oakland is 21-6 as a road fave when their starter won his last two starts. The caveat is that when the A’s rolled into T-O this team trend had a record of 21-4.
The Jays, with Happ at home are 5-9 since he became a Jay and the Over/Under record is 2-12 O/U. Can anyone explain that? Lack of run support is one thing; TOR has only scored more than three runs four times for the Hapless Wonder, averaging 2.9 RPG (vs. 4.1 RPG for the opponent).
Looked at some numbers for streaking teams, both ways, with tight lines and high totals. The general trend is that the road team struggles (14-26 SU) and the games score high (25-11-4 O/U), Scoring averages are 4.5 to 6.5.
The A’s are a .500 team in TOR the past 10 years but they tend to play better once they settle in a bit. In the third or fourth game of a series since 2010 OAK is 4-0 at TOR scoring 6-10-2-4 runs. Same frame, game’s 1 or 2 of a series Oakland is 1-5, scoring three runs or less in all five of the losses.
Jays home games with high totals following back-to-back home unders avg 9.6 RPG the past 10 years with 87 samples (37-47-3 O/U) so we can see where the book gets this number. I guess after looking at this game for almost an hour I have no idea who is going to win but I think it’s reasonable to expect each team could score 4-plus runs.
In a series final at Rogers between two lefties with a total greater than O/U 9, the Jays are 3-4 with 5 overs and 2 unders. Only one game saw less than nine runs (Romero vs. Braden, 2009). The HPU is Mark Carlson and he checks out alright. Time to brew a fresh pot of coffee and throw on the game. Now score you bastards!
A’s and Jays OV 9.5 -110 for 2 units
Extra plays for the day include the Marlins +110, the Rockies +159, Texas +159 and Houston +130
Here’s to a good day of baseball!