Predicting the winner of the Pro Bowl requires hard core data, in-depth analysis of player personnel and an utter, absolute acceptance of the ‘degenerate’ tag so often thrown towards sports bettors!
To handicap the 2015 Pro Bowl I started by looking at the odds history, ATS results and Over/Under margins from the past 10 years. Then I poured over the ESPN rosters as if I was doing a fantasy draft in reverse order. With the scores, lines and some old Pro Bowl betting tips I had jotted down from years’ past it was time to make a selection. I’m taking Cris Carter’s team and here’s my basic reasoning:
Tony Romo is one of the QBs on Team Irvin and Romo is a proven gambler and a life-time choker. Ask him 10 times if he thinks that pass to Dez Bryant was the smart idea on 4th and 2 against Green Bay and he’ll say “Yes” every time, even knowing the result. Sure, with Matt Stafford in the lineup there could be a nice team chemistry for these two as they sit and complain together how each got jobbed by the refs in the playoffs. Andrew Luck, Drew Brees and Andy Dalton on the other hand, will be making plans to see who can have the highest completion percentage.
Team Carter has three players from Buffalo drafted along with JJ Watt. All these players have been off since Week 17 while Team Irvin’s O-line is loaded with Cowboys who played 18 games. If there is a prop listed in “Number of sacks + knockdowns” for Team Carter’s defense, take the “Over”.
John Harbaugh’s all-time straight-up record is 82-45 (65-percent) and he has winning record in every month of the season. His ATS record in the months of January and February is 12-6 (67-percent).
Jason Garrett’s record in the first-half of the season is 15-8 ATS so if they ever decide to play the Pro Bowl in August, he would be a great candidate. The rest of the way, Garrett is 13-22 ATS (37-percent).
And you could say, “Well this is just an exhibition game. What do regular season and playoff records have to do with anything?” And to that I would say fine. Throw all the records out the door and just ask yourself which coach seems to be a better motivator. That’s what I thought.
The Pro Bowl odds are listed at Team Carter -2 across the board and the Over/Under lines is around 66.5. Too many recent rule changes for me to want to touch that total but I’m making a play on the side for roughly two-thirds the size of a normal NFL unit.
Pick: Take Team Carter