Feb 4, 3 months ago

Totally Covered, Super Bowl 52 Picks: Pats vs. Eagles

Totally Covered, Super Bowl 52 Picks: Pats vs. Eagles

Super Bowl 52 musings, props and predictions from Pick Sixty Sports!

After weeks of Super Bowl 52 hype, daily fake news masking as injury reports and a constant stream of email newsletters promising safe passage to prop heaven, game day is finally here!

By Jarvis Simes

The New England Patriots opened as a 6-point fave and dog bettors hammered them down to -4.5 within the first 72 hours. Public money is expected to fluff the Pats back up to -5 by kickoff but Eagles backers have made their presence known.

Philadelphia is playing in its first Super Bowl since February 6, 2005. Meanwhile if you Google ‘Super Bowl champions,’ a picture of the New England Patriots emblem appears. Tom Brady is the NFL’s GOAT at quarterback. Argue it if you want, but the guy’s got five rings. Today he’ll try to make it six but my money is on the dog.

Here is how I’m betting Super Bowl 52.

Super Bowl 52: Totally Covered

The first quarter total in this contest is 9.5 Over -125. In New England’s two playoff games this season we have seen 7 and 3 total points scored. In Philly’s two games, the Eagles and their opponent combined for 3 and 14 points.

Season averages, the Eagles finished with 9.5 first quarter points and New England 9.1 points.

In Sports Database SDQL playoff history, the Pats have a slight edge with 7.5 first quarter points to Philly’s 7.0, but that includes games at all sites. Take away the home games and we are left with much lower totals of 4.6 (Pats) and 6.0 (Eagles).

In Philly’s 2004-season Super Bowl against New England, neither team scored in the opening frame. Average off all seven Patriot Super Bowls since 2001 and we get a minuscule 2.1 points per game. That said, only three other Super Bowls from the past 15 years have finished at 0-0 through 15 minutes. At plus money, I’m projecting another low scoring start, say 7-0 through one.

Super Bowl 52 Over/Under Prediction: Take the First Quarter UNDER 9.5 points

super bowl 52 eagles

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Super Bowl 52 Picks: Patriots vs. Eagles

Philadelphia played at home in Week’s 16 and 17 to finish the season. Add in the bye week plus two playoff games and another bye pre-Super Bowl, and we are getting a team that is on the road for the first time in 49 days. The Eagles egos are likely inflated but HC Doug Pederson does a good job keeping this team focused. Playing against the Pats is a humbling experience unto itself.

Nick Foles is paying 3 to 1 odds in the Super Bowl MVP Props and he’s going to need a serious game here but I think he’s up to the challenge. The Eagles rank 15th in CP at 62.5, up two points from their final regular season tally. The Pats, as usual, ranked in the league’s top five.

Like the true Prince of Darkness, Brady’s CP currently sits at 66.6. In all playoff games beyond the WC Round, faves with an edge in CP are a 57% ATS fade. Faves in the Super Bowl are 3-7 SU and when laying -3 points or more, the CP edge chalk has a 1-6 SU/ATS record. New England was “live” in this angle three times, losing twice to the Giants and edging Seattle as a 1-point fave.

Super Bowl Favorites with an Edge in Completion Percentage

Bowl

Season

CP Edge

CP

Line

Opponent

CP

SU/ATS

36

2001

Rams

66.9

-14

Pats

63.3

L/L

37

2002

Raiders

66.3

-4

Bucs

61.0

L/L

41

2006

Colts

65.2

-7

Bears

54.7

W/W

42

2007

Pats

69.7

-12

Giants

56.8

L/L

46

2011

Pats

66.0

-3

Giants

61.7

L/L

47

2012

Niners

66.5

-4

Ravens

59.8

L/L

50

2015

Panthers

60.5

-4.5

Broncos

60.0

L/L

51

2017

Pats

66.6

-4.5

Eagles

62.5

L/L

This is shaping up as a great matchup on paper and it won’t surprise anyone if the Pats win straight up. From a value’s perspective, I think the Eagles are the play. I like them to keep it close and I absolutely think there is a chance they can win straight up.

For Super Bowl 52 props, I took ‘Total Sacks OVER 4.5’ and ‘Total Field Goals UNDER 3.5’. I also sprinkled a little on the moneyline since this was a good season but my top play is on the dog to cover.

Super Bowl Prediction: Take the Eagles

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Totally Covered, Super Bowl 52 Picks: Pats vs. Eagles

Super Bowl 52 musings, props and predictions from Pick Sixty Sports!…

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